May 30, 2023

What’s Next For Kroger’s Stock?

Kroger (NYSE: KR), the company that operates retail food and drug stores, multi-department stores, jewelry stores, and convenience stores throughout the United States, has increased 6% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month) and currently stands near $45. It should be noted that the broader S&P500 returned a 3% growth during the same period. In early December, the supermarket retailer announced Q3 revenues which grew 7% year-over-year (y-o-y) to $32 billion. The highlight of the Q3 report was the 103% jump in digital sales compared to 2019. Also, the company’s gross margin was 21.66% of sales for the quarter. That said, Kroger succeeded in key growth initiatives, including its digital selling channel and its in-store grocery brands – while managing to navigate around tough labor and supply chain conditions.

For the full year, Kroger raised its guidance driven by the momentum in the third-quarter results and sustained food at home trends.  The company now expects revenue compared to 2019 to be in the range of 13.7% to 13.9% compared to the previous outlook of 12.6% to 13.1%. It also expects the adjusted net earnings per diluted share to be in the range of $3.40 to $3.50 as compared to a prior range of $3.25 to $3.35.

Now, is KR stock poised to grow further? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 61% chance of a rise in KR stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on Kroger Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.

And if you are considering KR stock as an investment option over a longer time frame, you can explore our forecast for Kroger Revenue Comparison dashboard that compares it against its peers and history.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of rising’ using last 10 year data

[1] Returns of 1.9% or higher over five-day period in 712 times out of 2514 (28%); Stock rose in the next five days in 385 of these 712 instances (54%)

[2] Returns of -1.9% or lower over ten-day period in 612 times out of 2515 (24%); Stock rose in the next ten days in 346 of these 612 instances (57%)

[3] Returns of 5.6% or higher over twenty-one-day period in 621 times out of 2515 (25%); Stock rose in the next twenty-one days in 380 of these 621 instances (61%)

Also, Kroger Peer Comparisons summarizes how the company fares against peers on metrics that matter.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Dec 2021
MTD [1]
YTD [1]
Total [2]
 KR Return 3% 40% 29%
 S&P 500 Return 4% 27% 114%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return 2% 47% 296%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 12/28/2021
[2] Cumulative total returns since 2017

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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