February 1, 2023

What To Expect From M&T Bank Stock After A 3.4% Rise In One Week?


M&T Bank stock (NYSE: MTB) has gained 3.4% in the last week, outperforming the S&P 500 (up 3.1%). Further, the same trend was evident over the last ten-day horizon, with the stock increasing 3.1%. In comparison, the broader market remained slightly behind at 3%. 

The company offers a range of services like retail banking, commercial banking, mortgage banking, business banking, wealth management, etc. Its top-line and profitability suffered in 2020 due to the Covid-19 crisis. Further, the impact was evident in the first two quarters of 2021 as well. However, it posted better than expected results in the third quarter, with revenues increasing 5% y-o-y to $1.54 billion. The growth was mainly driven by a 38% jump in the business banking segment. In addition to the revenue growth, MTB’s provisions for credit losses have recorded a favorable decrease, leading to improvement in the profitability figures. Overall, the above factors are behind the positive investor sentiment toward the stock.

Now, is MTB stock set to rise further, or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a 54% chance of a rise in M&T Bank stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on M&T Bank Stock Chance of Rise.

Twenty-One Day: MTB 1.3%, vs. S&P500 2.8%; Underperformed market

(50% likelihood event; 54% probability of rise over next 69 days)

  • M&T Bank stock gained 1.3% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 2.8%
  • A change of 1.3% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 50% likelihood event, which has occurred 1268 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 1268 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 682 occasions
  • This points to a 54% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: MTB 3.1%, vs. S&P500 3%; Outperformed market

(23% likelihood event; 54% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • M&T Bank stock increased 3.1% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) gain of 3%
  • A change of 3.1% or more over ten trading days is a 23% likelihood event, which has occurred 582 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 582 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 312 occasions
  • This points to a 54% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: MTB 3.4%, vs. S&P500 3.1%; Outperformed market

(16% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next five days)

  • M&T Bank stock gained 3.4% over a five-day trading period ending 12/29/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) gain of 3.1%
  • A change of 3.4% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 16% likelihood event, which has occurred 390 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 390 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 218 occasions
  • This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

 

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Dec 2021
MTD [1]
2021
YTD [1]
2017-21
Total [2]
 MTB Return 1% 21% -1%
 S&P 500 Return 3% 27% 114%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return 2% 47% 296%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 12/30/2021
[2] Cumulative total returns since 2017

 

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.



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