May 27, 2023

USDJPY trades at the highest level in 5 years

The USDJPY is trading to the upside in trading today and in the process has to the highest level since January 11, 2017 – nearly 5 years ago. The pair is also above the 116.00 low for the first time since that date.


USDJPY on the weekly chart

The move higher today surpassed the November 24 high at 115.513. It also moved above a similar high going back to March 10 at 115.501. The 61.8% retracement of the move down from the 2015 high to the 2016 low was also broken at 115.551. That area between 115.50 and 115.55 will now be a key support level going forward longer term. Stay above is more bullish. On the weekly chart above, the next major target comes in near the December 2016 and January 2017 highs near 118.65.

Drilling to the hourly chart, the run higher is evident.

Yesterday, the price corrected down – and through – the 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart below), and rising trendline, but only briefly before retracing the declines into the close. The inability to keep the pressure on through the 100 hour moving average was a catalyst for the move to the upside. Rising yields/ higher stocks in the US also helped to push the dollar higher.

The price for the USDJPY moved above a topside trendline near the high from 2021 at 115.513. That also was a catalyst for further upside momentum in trading today.


USDJPY on the hourly chart

What would hurt the intraday trend higher today?

Drilling to the five minute chart below, the move to the upside today started with the price basing near it’s 100 bar moving average (and above the 200 bar MA – blue and green lines respectively). The corrective move in the early European session found support ahead of the 38.2% retracement of the move higher at 115.606. The low price reached 115.682 before moving higher again. That low was also above the high from 2021 at 115.51 (bullish).

The current trend move higher from the 115.646 low, has the 116.078 and 115.995 as the 38.2-50% “correction zone”. IN an intraday trending market, The 38.2% to 50% retracement area becomes the bias defining level intraday. Stay above the “correction zone” of the last leg higher, and the trend remains intact. Move below and it could be signaling more of a neutral market at the extreme. Expect consolidation and a more balanced market.


USDJPY is trending higher in trading today

So for now given the recent high, the 116.00 area is support. Stay above, and buyers/bulls remain in firm control.

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