June 7, 2023

USD/JPY’s rally rounding off in low 115 area, bears focus on 113.50

  • USD/JPY is holding in bullish territory in the 115 area. 
  • Bulls eye the 118 areas on a continuation of the monthly bullish trend. 

USD/JPY has enjoyed a decent spell on the bid into the end of the year, rising from a low of 112.53 near the start of December and potentially climaxing around the current levels near 115.15. However, on a break of 115.53, the bulls could be encouraged to target 118.50 for weeks ahead as illustrated below. 

Meanwhile, the week ahead will be busy for the US dollar traders. The calendar’s highlights will be ISM data, the Federal Open Market Committee minutes and Nonfarm Payrolls at the end of the week. Additionally, US president Joe Biden’s nominations for three Fed governor seats could also garner attention.

US events in focus

At the end of the week, the US jobs market will be back in vogue with the US Nonfarm Payrolls report. ”The late-December COVID surge likely came too late to prevent a pickup in US payrolls after the gain in November (210k) appeared to be held down by an overly aggressive seasonal factor,” analysts at TD Securities explained. 

For the day ahead, it is quiet with some major economies in APAC observing New Year’s Day. European markets will also be lacking volumes with London on a Bank Holiday as well. Instead, the US dollar will be taking cues from potentially slowing in the ISMs on the 4th. However, the levels should remain high according to analysts at TD securities. 

”We expect the services index to decline more markedly following November’s eye-popping jump to 69.1—an all-time high—and given the likely initial impact from Omicron. The mfg index probably fell below the 60 mark for the first time in four months. Anything over 60 is exceptionally strong.”

USD/JPY technical analysis

The above daily chart illustrates the rising trend and prospects of a break to the downside below the dynamic support line. 

The chart below shows the monthly bias to the upside. 

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