Unpacking the Risky Quarterback Transition
In the NFL, every second counts, and quarterback changes can significantly impact a team’s prospects. Now, imagine transitioning from Tom Brady, the universally acknowledged GOAT, to Baker Mayfield as your starting quarterback. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers should be concerned with some of the stats when analyzing Baker’s performance, especially when comparing his “Time to Throw” with Brady’s.
Mayfield will operate behind an offensive line that was notably unsound in the past season. This line ranked 25th in Pass Block Win Rate and an abysmal 31st in Run Block Win Rate. Any team with such records will face challenges against strong defensive lines and pressure assaults.
One of the primary reasons the team managed to sustain its offense last year was Brady’s remarkable ability to release the ball in a snap. His Time to Throw was recorded at 2.3 seconds over 733 attempts. This makes Brady the first quarterback in history to achieve such a feat on at least 650 pass attempts. His unparalleled speed in releasing the ball kept him relatively safe from pressure and ensured he seldom faced sacks. To put things in perspective, his Sack Rate stood at No. 1 out of 77 quarterbacks in 2021 and maintained that position in 2022.
But where does Mayfield stand in comparison? His position on the Sack Rate list for the last two years was No. 71 and 72, respectively, out of 77. That’s a considerable gap, placing him among the most vulnerable quarterbacks. His Sack Rate is alarmingly over three times that of Brady’s.
Another vital metric in this discussion is the pressure-to-sack ratio. It evaluates how frequently a quarterback, when pressured, gets sacked. Last year, Mayfield had the dubious distinction of being the worst in this category in the entire NFL. He faced sacks roughly 50% of the time he was pressured.
Given these statistics, expecting Mayfield to be a minor downgrade from Brady might be an understatement. It’s not just about the quarterback’s skills but their innate playing style, adaptability, and mindset. Unless the team’s offensive coordinator, Dave Canales, trains Mayfield to release the ball with Brady-like rapidity, the team’s offense is headed for frequent sacks. And as any seasoned NFL fan knows, with more sacks come fewer touchdowns.
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