June 3, 2023

The OPEC+ meeting is underway and it might be a short one

The OPEC+ meeting is ongoing now and it shouldn’t be long before we see leaks saying that the planned 400,000 barrel per day increase slated for February is approved.

OPEC undoubtedly feels vindicated after last months’ decision to stick with the hike despite omicron and falling prices (at the time). Crude has since turned around and brent is now at $79.77.

Citi had some negative comments on oil today, saying it could fall $10-15 on oversupply.

I don’t think today’s OPEC meeting itself is going to spur any trading but there’s oil money on the sidelines from year-end that might be looking to go to work. There’s often volatility and big oil prices moves around OPEC decisions, even when there aren’t any surprises.

oil daily

As for the chart, I’m skeptical of the late-December break higher above $72.50 and suspect we go back and test that, though outages in Libya are a fundamental tailwind.

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