June 3, 2023

The NZD/USD is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest as the 2021 year begins


The strongest to weakest of the major currencies

As the traders rub their eyes after the Christmas/New Years holiday period last week, the markets are still in semi-holiday. The Canadian markets are taking a day off as is the UK markets. The US stock and bond markets are open, but banks and government offices are closed.

The NZD/USD are starting as the strongest of the majors (they are battling for the strongest spot), while the CAD is the weakest. Having said that, the major currencies are all relatively scrunched together. The “league table” will likely have some shift as the day progresses.

The trading may be off to slow start but this week

  • The US jobs report on Friday (est of around 400K).
  • OPEC will meet tomorrow. Will OPEC continue to hold the line on their schedule production increases.
  • The US Markit PMI (final close data will be released today.
  • The ISM PMI data will be released tomorrow.
  • The FOMC meeting minutes will be released on Wednesday.

The economic fall from the omicron Christmas/New Year is unknown but expected to have a temporary/minimal impact (although sickness will likely have an impact).

Stocks are higher in the US (and in Europe). The US yields are higher. Oil is higher and above $75, but off the $77.44 high from last week.

In other markets as the trading week begins shows:

  • Spot gold down nine dollars or -0.5% at $1820.15.
  • Spot silver is down $0.17 -0.73% at $23.10.
  • WTI crude oil futures are up $0.20 at $75.40
  • Bitcoin is trading at $47,280 after trading as high as $52,098 on December 27. The weekend high traded as high as $47,989.

In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are higher. The S&P is down 3of the last 4 days. The Dow is down the past 2 sessions. The NASDAQ is performing the worst of late as it has been down 4 straight days:

  • Dow industrial average is up 167.7 points after Friday’s -59.78 point decline
  • S&P index is up 25.75 points after Friday’s -12.55 point decline
  • NASDAQ index is up 122 points after Friday’s -96.59 point decline

Last year, the

  • Dow industrial average rose 18.73%
  • S&P index rose 26.89%
  • NASDAQ index rose 21.39%

In the European equity markets today:

  • German DAX is up 1.12%
  • France’s CAC is up 1.2%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB is up 1.2%
  • Spain’s Ibex is up 0.83%

As mentioned, the UK markets are closed today

Last year,

  • German DAX, +15.79%
  • France’s CAC, +28.85%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +14.3%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +7.93%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +23.00

In the US debt market, the yields are higher with the 10 year back above the 1.5% at 1.536%.A look at the yield curve in the US shows :

US yields

US yields are higher

In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are showing the biggest movers and Spain and Italy with yields down -4.5 basis points in Spain and Italian 10 year yields down -2.7 basis points.

European yields

10 year European yields

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