November 30, 2023

The JPY is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as NA traders enter for the week

As the North American session begins, the JPY is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest. The USD is mostly stronger after closing on Friday as the weakest of the majors on Friday when the jobs gains were weaker than expected but the unemployment rate moved lower and wage growth was also stronger. The market is now pointing to up to 4 tightenings in 2022, and chatter over the weekend, that the Fed may have to impose Quantitative Tightening (QT – see post here).


The strongest to weakest currencies to start trading week

US 10 year yields move up 25 basis points last week. They are up modestly today.

US stocks last week saw the major indices all move lower led by the Nasdaq which fell -4.53%. The US stocks are trading lower in pre-market trading today.

  • Dow industrial average fell -0.31%
  • S&P index fell -1.85%
  • NASDAQ index tumbled by -4.53%
  • Russell 2000 fell -3.11%

This week, on Tuesday Fed Chair Powell will testify on his renomination for Fed chair in front of the setback the committee. US CPI data will be released on Wednesday, PPI will be released on Thursday and retail sales were released on Friday.

A snapshot of the market currently shows:

  • Spot gold is down $1.84 -0.11% at $1793.50
  • Spot silver is down six cents -0.24% at $22.27
  • WTI crude oil futures are trading down around $0.78 at $78.19
  • The price of bitcoin is trading below $41,000 at $40,943

In the premarket for US stocks, the futures are implying a lower levels in the major indices. The NASDAQ and S&P are on four day losing streaks. The Dow industrial average is down three straight days after closing at record levels for the first two days of the trading year. The earnings season gets underway with J.P. Morgan and Citibank reporting on Friday (can you believe it is that time again?):

  • Dow industrial average is down -120 points after Friday’s -4.81 point decline
  • S&P is down 31 points after Friday’s -19 point decline
  • NASDAQ index is down -192 points after Friday’s -144.96 point decline

In the European equity markets, the major indices are also trading lower:

  • German DAX, -0.64%
  • France’s CAC, -0.7%
  • UK’s FTSE 100 -0.25%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.4%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.35%

In the US debt market, yields are modestly higher after last week’s sharp move to the upside:

US yields

US yields are marginally higher

In the European debt market, yields are trading lower after German tenure initially moved closer to the parity level at -0.025% (currently at -0.055%).

European yields

European benchmark 10 year yields

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