Since the start of the 21st century, the Golden Globe Award for Best Comedy Series has gone to a category newcomer 78% of the time, with the current such streak having lasted for 11 years. While that trend could easily continue into 2024 if voters ultimately favor a show such as “Jury Duty,” “Poker Face” or “Shrinking,” there is a high likelihood of there being a more unusual outcome. Indeed, Gold Derby’s early Golden Globes predictions odds indicate that a staggering 84% of our participating users believe 2023 also-ran “The Bear” will wind up prevailing on its second outing.
At the most recent Golden Globes ceremony honoring the films and TV programs of 2022, FX’s “The Bear” lost the top comedy award to another first-timer, ABC’s “Abbott Elementary,” which will probably have a chance to become the category’s first back-to-back winner since “Glee” (2011). “The Bear” wasn’t completely overlooked in its first year, however, because its star, Jeremy Allen White, managed to clinch the corresponding lead male acting prize. Heading into next year’s event, the vast majority of our Golden Globes predictors also expect him to sail to another individual triumph.
If White does retain his title, his situation could end up mirroring those of respective “Alice” and “30 Rock” stars Linda Lavin and Tina Fey, whose second consecutive comedy lead wins in 1980 and 2009 coincided with their series’ own second-try victories. Following the official categorical separation of comedy and drama programs in 1970, only those two sitcoms and “Murphy Brown” (1990) have succeeded in overcoming an initial Best Comedy Series loss just one year later. This brief list also includes one honorary entrant, “Rowan & Martin’s Laugh-In,” which lost the catch-all TV series award in 1968 but then redeemed itself in 1969.
Comparing said three cases to “The Bear’s” potential rematch against “Abbott Elementary” only strengthens the former’s frontrunner position. “30 Rock” didn’t have to face the show that beat it the previous year (“Extras”), but its two predecessors did, resulting in an unprecedented tie between “Alice” and “Taxi” and then a singular defeat by “Murphy Brown” over “The Wonder Years.” Following their redemption wins, each show earned between one and three more series bids, none of which were successful.
If “The Bear” falters in the main race again, it’s possible that one of its presumed competitors could achieve an even rarer feat. That is, any of the two-time losers that might land in the lineup – “Barry” (2018-2019), “The Great” (2020-2021), “Only Murders in the Building” (2021-2022) or “Ted Lasso” (2021-2022) – could score its first series win, emulating the initial third-outing successes of just two programs: “The Carol Burnett Show” (1970) and “Modern Family” (2012). Before “Schitt’s Creek” was honored for its sixth and final season in 2021, the last show to snag this award three or more years into its run was “Seinfeld” in 1994.
For its second season (the entirety of which dropped on June 22, 2023), “The Bear” is also widely expected to pick up two more Golden Globe nominations based on the work of supporting players Ayo Edebiri and Ebon Moss-Bachrach. Although they are presently trailing frontrunners Meryl Streep (“Only Murders in the Building”) and Matthew Macfadyen (“Succession”), it’s reasonable to anticipate at least one of them coming out on top, due to the fact that said “Alice” and “30 Rock” cases respectively involved additional acting victories for Polly Holliday and Alec Baldwin.
With “Abbott Elementary” immediately in the hunt for another win and several strong newcomers in the mix, “The Bear” has its work cut out for it when it comes to charming Golden Globes voters. Nonetheless, the immense confidence our users have in it isn’t likely to fade much, and it may in fact be wisest to trust in its ability to disrupt its top category’s freshman winners pattern.
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