November 30, 2023

PMIs the highlight in Europe in the day ahead

There are minor changes in the major currencies space so far today, with the overall market mood being rather tentative.

The dollar had a decent showing but owes much to a surge in USD/JPY, which has calmed down. This comes as 10-year Treasury yields also test the upper bound of its recent wedge pattern:

US10Y W1 05-01

That remains a key spot to watch in trading this week, as outlined here.

Meanwhile, stocks had a mixed showing yesterday as tech sank while the Dow flourished. Sentiment is less enthused today with US futures pointing lower with eyes on the FOMC meeting minutes release later.

There isn’t much to shake things up in Europe, with final services and composite PMI readings the key event on the economic calendar. As such, the focus will continue to be on the risk mood and bonds as noted above.

0745 GMT – France December consumer confidence
Prior release can be found here. French consumer morale is estimated to ease a little last month but nothing too steep. Omicron worries are arguably the main reason, adding to some slowdown in consumption activity.

0815 GMT – Spain December services, composite PMI
0845 GMT – Italy December services, composite PMI
0850 GMT – France December final services, composite PMI
0855 GMT – Germany December final services, composite PMI
0900 GMT – Eurozone December final services, composite PMI

The focus is on the final readings for France, Germany, and Eurozone, which should just reaffirm slower conditions in December. This comes as omicron becomes more widespread and surging price pressures also weigh on sentiment.

1200 GMT – US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 24 December, 31 December
The release today covers two weeks since reporting was delayed amid the holidays. Weekly US housing data, measures the change in number of applications for mortgages backed by the MBA during the week.

That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.

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