February 4, 2023

On the docket: ISM manufacturing, JOLTS and Canada returns after the loonie’s wild ride

USD/CAD went for a bit of a ride in the past few trading days but all the moves were in lower liquidity. The drop in USD/CAD came on New Years Eve and yesterday’s rebound came with Canada out for holiday.

All told though, CAD is essentially back to where it was before the wobble. At the same time, outlook for risk trades and oil has improved. But if you’re in the CAD market, why not wait until after today’s OPEC+ decision.

The latest news on that front is that the JMMC says the oil market is currently in a state of balance and will move into surplus in Q1 and beyond. That’s nothing new and OPEC is widely expected to confirm the planned 400k bpd increase for Feb.

On the economic calendar, Canada kicks it off with producer prices at the bottom of the hour. The prior was +16.7% y/y. Yikes.

Next is the Canadian Markit PMI at 9:30 am ET (1430 GMT).

The main event is at 10 am ET (1500 GMT) with the ISM manufacturing report and JOLTS. Yesterday’s Markit US manufacturing PMI showed ongoing high backlogs and high prices but with signs of moderation.

The central bank speakers schedule is quiet and after the US close we get API oil inventories.

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