Tropical Storm Ernesto batters Puerto Rico; could become major hurricane this weekend
Tropical Storm Ernesto dropped torrential rain on eastern Puerto Rico early Wednesday and left hundreds of thousands of people without power as it threatened to strengthen into the season’s second major hurricane near Bermuda later this week.
Ernesto was located about 85 miles north-northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico. It had maximum sustained winds of 70 mph and was moving northwest at 16 mph.
“While it is possible Ernesto is already a hurricane, radar data does not yet support an upgrade,” the National Hurricane Center in Miami said. It will be the third hurricane of the 2024 season.
A hurricane watch remained in effect for the British Virgin Islands as Ernesto emerged off Puerto Rico and began moving over open waters.
Ernesto is expected to become the season’s third hurricane by early Wednesday north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, forecasters said.
As of Wednesday, there were no watches or warnings posted for Bermuda, but they are expected soon.
Ernesto, which formed in the Atlantic on Monday, slowed overnight and is making a turn to the northwest and eventually to the north. It is forecast to remain well east of the U.S. mainland.
Ernesto could strengthen into a major hurricane or peak at just below major-hurricane strength within the next three days, according to forecasters.
“Very warm sea surface temperatures and generally low shear favor continued strengthening over the next few days,” hurricane center forecasters said Tuesday afternoon.
AccuWeather meteorologists say after Tropical Storm Ernesto becomes a hurricane, rough surf and dangerous rip currents are expected across the entire U.S. East Coast later in the week.
“Rip currents could be very dangerous along the East coast of the United States. We often see rescues and loss of life at beaches during these types of storms,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said in a prepared statement. “The storm may be hundreds of miles out to sea and the weather could look great at beaches along Florida, the Carolinas, even up to New England, but everyone needs to be aware of the risks and dangers at the beach.”
The government of the U.S. Virgin Islands reported an island-wide blackout in St. Croix, while in Puerto Rico, more than 300,000 customers were without power.
Late Tuesday, the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency had warned people in both U.S. territories to prepare for “extended power outages.”
Luma Energy, the company that operates transmission and distribution of power in Puerto Rico, said early Wednesday that its priority was to restore power to hospitals, the island’s water and sewer company and other essential services.
Puerto Rico’s power grid was razed by Hurricane Maria in September 2017 as a Category 4 storm, and it remains frail as crews continue to rebuild the system.
Not everyone can afford generators on the island of 3.2 million people with a more than 40% poverty rate.
“People already prepared themselves with candles,” said Lucía Rodríguez, a 31-year-old street vendor.
Puerto Rico Gov. Pedro Pierluisi announced late Tuesday that U.S. President Joe Biden had approved his request to use emergency FEMA funds as a result of the tropical storm.
Hurricane season, which runs from June 1-Nov. 30, has entered the busiest time of the year from mid-August to October. The next named storm will be Francine.
Though July was quiet, experts at Colorado State this week said the remainder of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season should be “extremely active,” with the likelihood of 10 more hurricanes.
Colorado State’s department of atmospheric science has released its final 2024 hurricane season forecast for the year, calling for a “well-above-average” August through November.
One bright note is that it actually reduced its number of named storms from its July forecast, from 25 down to 23. The 1991 to 2020 average is 14.4.
The Colorado State team still expects 12 hurricanes (the 1991-2020 average was 7.2), and is forecasting that six of those will reach major hurricane strength (Category 3, 4 or 5). The 1991-2020 average is 3.2.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday echoed Colorado State’s prediction in its updated 2024 hurricane season forecast, calling for an “extremely active” remainder of the season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
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