Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley prediction, odds, pick for UFC 307
UFC 307: Alex Perera vs. Khalil Rountree continues on the prelims in the welterweight division with a matchup between Stephen Thompson and Joaquin Buckley. Thompson is coming off a submission loss in his fight back in December 2023 meanwhile, Buckley has been surging winning each of his last four fights. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Thompson-Buckley prediction and pick.
Stephen Thompson (17-7-1) is now just 1-3 in his last four fights however, his losses are only against the elite of the elite in the welterweight division. His last three losses consist of Shavkat Rakhmonov, Belal Muhammad, and Gilbert Burns, the No. 1 contender, the current welterweight champion, and former title challenger. Thompson will be looking to get himself back into the win column when he takes on the surging Joaquin Buckley this weekend at UFC 307.
Joaquin Buckley (19-6) is riding a four-fight winning streak coming into the biggest fight of his career. He finished two of those four victories knocking out Vicente Luque and Andre Fialho. Buckley will be searching for his marquee win this weekend in Salt Lake City when he takes on Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson.
Here are the UFC 307 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 307 Odds: Stephen Thompson-Joaquin Buckley Odds
Stephen Thompson: +185
Joaquin Buckley: -225
Over 2.5 rounds: -215
Under 2.5 rounds: +165
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Why Stephen Thompson Will Win
Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson has a strong chance of defeating Joaquin Buckley at UFC 307 in Salt Lake City, despite being the underdog.
Thompson’s karate-based striking style remains one of the most unique and effective in the UFC. His ability to manage distance and counter-strike could prove problematic for Buckley’s more aggressive approach. At 41, Thompson brings a wealth of high-level experience, having faced top-tier competition throughout his career. This experience could be crucial in navigating Buckley’s pressure and finding openings.
Thompson’s request for a five-round fight suggests confidence in his cardio however they settled on three rounds. His ability to maintain a high pace could be a significant factor, especially if Buckley fatigues in later rounds. Expect Thompson to employ a hit-and-move strategy, using his footwork to avoid Buckley’s power shots while picking him apart from range. Thompson’s takedown defense (65%) should help him keep the fight standing where he excels.
This fight represents a critical juncture for Thompson. A win over the surging Buckley would prove he’s still a top contender in the welterweight division, potentially setting up bigger fights in the future. While Buckley’s recent success is impressive, Thompson’s elite striking, experience, and strategic approach make him a strong candidate to upset the odds and secure a victory in this compelling welterweight clash.
Why Joaquin Buckley Will Win
Joaquin Buckley has a strong chance of defeating Stephen Thompson at UFC 307 in Salt Lake City, despite Thompson’s veteran status and striking pedigree.
Buckley enters this fight on a four-fight winning streak, showcasing improved skills and confidence. This momentum could be crucial against the 41-year-old Thompson, who has lost three of his last four bouts. While known for his striking, Buckley’s wrestling could be the key to victory. With a 69% takedown defense and 1.69 takedowns per 15 minutes, Buckley has the tools to control where the fight takes place. Thompson’s 65% takedown defense suggests vulnerability to a wrestling-heavy approach.
At 30 years old, Buckley possesses a significant age advantage. His explosive power, evidenced by 13 career knockouts, could trouble Thompson, who has shown vulnerability to power punchers in recent fights. Expect Buckley to mix striking with takedown attempts, disrupting Thompson’s rhythm. By keeping “Wonderboy” guessing, Buckley can negate Thompson’s counter-striking style and potentially find a finish or dominate for a decision win.
Thompson’s recent performances indicate a decline in his once-elusive style. Buckley’s aggression and pressure could exploit this, especially if the fight goes into later rounds. Buckley’s combination of momentum, wrestling ability, and youthful power make him a formidable challenge for the aging Thompson in this compelling welterweight clash.
Final Stephen Thompson-Joaquin Buckley Prediction & Pick
This fight is a tale between two competitors on different spectrums of their fighting careers right now. With Thompson now 41 and at the tail end of his career meanwhile, Buckley is just hitting his prime and is on the longest winning streak of his UFC career.
This fight will depend on whether or not Thompson has still got it or if Buckley’s speed and athleticism are too hard to overcome at this stage of his career. Ultimately, this should be an exciting matchup and while Thompson may be on the decline this still seems like a tough matchup for the surging Buckley as he will have trouble closing the distance to land his shots as well as trouble landing takedowns, so as long as ‘Wonderboy’ can keep his movement going and utilize his kicks at range he can outstrike Buckley to a decision victory.
Final Stephen Thompson-Joaquin Buckley Prediction & Pick: Stephen Thompson (+185), Over 2.5 Rounds (-215)
The post Stephen Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley prediction, odds, pick for UFC 307 appeared first on ClutchPoints.
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