Cavaliers vs. Pacers Game 3 odds, prediction
By Dylan Svoboda
Indiana Pacers forward Aaron Nesmith (23) celebrates after hitting a three point basket during the second half against the Cleveland Cavaliers in game one of the second round for the 2025 NBA Playoffs at Rocket Arena.
Indiana Pacers forward Aaron Nesmith (23) celebrates after hitting a 3-pointer during the second half against the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 1 of the second round for the 2025 NBA playoffs.
Ken Blaze-Imagn Images
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Aaron Nesmith has quietly been a major reason why the Pacers find themselves up 2-0 over the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference semifinal round.
The fifth-year Vanderbilt product had somewhat of a breakout for Indiana in the second half of the NBA regular season, and he has rode that momentum right into the postseason.
In seven playoff games heading into Friday night’s contest at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Nesmith is averaging 16.3 points on 56.2 percent shooting overall and a ridiculous 56.1 percent from 3-point land on 5.9 attempts per game.
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Nesmith has been even better than that in two games against Cleveland, averaging 20 points on 9-of-14 from 3 (64.2 percent).
It’s a hot streak, to be sure, but Nesmith’s production is not all that far off from when he got healthy and joined the Pacers’ starting lineup for good after the All-Star break.
During that stretch, Nesmith averaged 15 points on 52.2 percent shooting overall and 45.3 from deep – the latter of which would’ve been the second-best in the NBA over a full season this year.
Aaron Nesmith #23 of the Indiana Pacers handles the ball during the game against the Cleveland Cavaliers during Round 2 Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Playoffs on May 4, 2025 at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland, Ohio.
Aaron Nesmith #23 of the Indiana Pacers handles the ball during the game against the Cleveland Cavaliers during Round 2 Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Playoffs on May 4, 2025 at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland, Ohio.
NBAE via Getty Images
Oddsmakers, apparently, aren’t totally buying it, though.
Nesmith’s points total is sitting at just 12.5 at most major sportsbooks on Friday.
Aside from the Pacers’ opening playoff game against the Bucks, Nesmith has gone Over this number in every game, scoring at least 14 points and shooting better than 50 percent from the floor in every game.
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It hasn’t been close against the Cavaliers, scoring 17 and 23 in Games 1 and 2, respectively.
I’m buying high and taking the Over for Nesmith.
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