Austin Hubbard vs. Alexander Hernandez prediction, odds, pick for UFC 307
The UFC is back for another Pay-Per-View event and we’re ready to bring you our betting predictions and picks for UFC 307 from Salt Lake City, Utah. This next bout takes place in the Lightweight (155) Division as Colorado’s Austin Hubbard takes on Alexander Hernandez of Texas. Check out our UFC odds series for our Hubbard-Hernandez prediction and pick.
Austin Hubbard (16-7) has gone an overall 4-5 in the UFC through two stints and an appearance on The Ultimate Fighter 31. Most recently, he dropped a fight to Kurt Holobaugh via submission, but rebounded in a big way over Michal Figlak with a UD-win his last time out. He’ll look for an upset as the slight betting underdog. Hubbard stands 5’10” with a 71-inch reach.
Alexander Hernandez (14-8) has gone 6-7 inside the UFC since 2018. He’s been struggling as of late with just one win in his last five fights coming against veteran Jim Miller. He’s lost two decisions to Bill Algeo and Damon Jackson heading into this fight and will effectively have his back against the wall as the favorite to win this contest. Hernandez stands 5’9″ with a 72-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 307 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 307 Odds: Austin Hubbard- Alexander Hernandez Odds
Austin Hubbard: +140
Alexander Hernandez: -166
Over 2.5 rounds: -220
Under 2.5 rounds: +170
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Why Austin Hubbard Will Win
Austin Hubbard showed a lot of character throughout his time on The Ultimate Fighter and even though he couldn’t get the win in the final, his resolve and will to get better was proven in his last fight as he notched a unanimous decision as the betting underdog. Against a dangerous striker like Michal Figlak, Hubbard kept his composure and put defense at the forefront while limiting damage done on himself. His forward-pressing style served him well during the matchup and he should see success using the same tactics here against Hernandez.
Austin Hubbard has a solid takedown defense rate of 65% and he’ll likely have to turn away a number of attempts from Hernandez during this fight. His opponent may have a slight strength advantage in clinch situations along the fence, so Hubbard will benefit most from fighting at range and popping his shots from a distance. Look for him to go to his low calf kick early as Hernandez has been subject to damage from there in the past. If he’s able to make this fight look sloppy, it should bode well for his chances at a decision win.
Why Alexander Hernandez Will Win
Alexander Hernandez is on a tough losing streak of fights and his only recent win came in a very advantageous matchup against an aged Jim Miller. Aside from that, Hernandez has mostly struggled with tough, rangy, and scrappy strikers that test his limits in the later rounds. Hernandez almost always gets off to a fast start and he’s most dangerous in the opening minutes of the fight. He has tremendous athleticism and does a great job of staying active and moving throughout the cage. He’s also very explosive and if he can land a big shot early into the fight, he’ll be quick to jump in and go for the finish.
Still, the biggest knock on Hernandez is that he tends to fade later in the fight, allowing scrappy opponents like Algeo, Jackson, and Quarantillo to shift the momentum in their favor when putting on the pressure. Austin Hubbard is another opponent cut from a similar cloth, so Hernandez will have to focus on a consistent output for three rounds and using his wrestling strategically to get this fight to the ground and mount meaningful offense from there.
Final Austin Hubbard-Alexander Hernandez Prediction & Pick
This should be yet another close scrap on the UFC 307 Prelims as we’ll see a very close stylistic matchup between Austin Hubbard and Alexander Hernandez. Hernandez is the betting favorite due to his physical advantages and ability to push the pace to open the fight. Austin Hubbard, however, is tough as nails and he’ll be very hard to put away during this one.
Austin Hubbard will see the most success his if he’s able to take this fight into the later rounds and push the pace on Hernandez once his opponent has already expended himself. Still, Hernandez stands a great shot at winning this fight early on and once again finding his momentum within the division.
However, for our final prediction, we’ll ride the underdog in Austin Hubbard to get the win. His toughness is what gives him the edge here and if Hernandez isn’t able to put him out in the opening round, the fight will only favor Hubbard as it extends to the later rounds.
Final Austin Hubbard-Alexander Hernandez Prediction & Pick: Austin Hubbard (+150)
The post Austin Hubbard vs. Alexander Hernandez prediction, odds, pick for UFC 307 appeared first on ClutchPoints.
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