Ceiling & Floor: Predicting the best and worst case for the Florida Gators in 2024
GAINESVILLE, Fla. — By now you’ve heard about the schedule from hell. The Florida Gators‘ 2024 schedule has been called one of the hardest in college football history. A home-and-home with the Miami Hurricanes begins this year, as does a three-game series with UCF. Tack on the annual rivalry game with Florida State and the Gators added three Power 5 teams to its non-conference schedule.
Florida will play 11 Power 5 teams this season with the only break coming in the form of Samford, who scored half a hundred plus two the last time they were in The Swamp. The schedule is daunting but, perhaps it’s navigable. Today we take a look at the ceiling and the floor for the Gators in 2024.
Florida Gators’ ceiling
8-4
Let’s get games I just don’t see Florida winning out of the way, they’ll stay the same in both cases. I don’t see Florida leaving Jacksonville or Austin with wins over Georgia and Texas. But if we look at the schedule, the Gators play well at home and, this season, they’ll get seven of their 12 games in the Swamp. That includes Miami in the season opener.
The 2024 opener features a pair of sub .500 head coaches who were hired in the same offseason. It’s a historic rivalry, one each of their fanbases will have a hard time forgetting or forgiving the losing coach for. The Gators will get Miami at home in a game they can and should win. We’ll add Samford and Texas A&M — which has a new coaching staff and will be playing its first road game of the season after opening at home against Notre Dame and McNeese.
I have no confidence in Florida on the road. The Gators are 2-10 when they play away from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium under Billy Napier. That being said, Florida’s first road game is against a Mississippi State team with a new coaching staff. Make it five wins.
UCF, in my mind, is a trickier game that most people are overlooking. The Knights added former Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson, who was created in a lab to run Guz Malzahn‘s offense. In total, UCF added 26 transfers this offseason. Florida should win this game at home but it’s not a game to overlook.
A trip to Knoxville will be tough. Last year, I picked Florida to beat Tennessee mainly because I didn’t believe in Joe Milton. Well, Josh Heupel will hand the offense over to former five-star-plus signee Nico Iamaleava, who I do believe in. In this scenario, it will be Florida’s first loss of the season.
The Gators are on an unfathomable three-year losing streak to the Kentucky Wildcats. The Gators’ last three-game losing streak to Kentucky prior to this came during Harry S. Truman’s presidency. The Gators get Kentucky at home and can end that streak.
That sends Florida to the second bye week at 6-1 with two losses coming against Georgia and Texas to make it 6-3.
Finishing the season 3-1 against LSU, Ole Miss, and at Florida State would be a great run for the Gators and an 8-4 season, considering the schedule is doable. The Gators haven’t been able to beat LSU since 2018 and Napier’s teams haven’t come closer than 10 points. But Florida gets LSU at home, without three first-round picks in Jayden Daniels, Malik Naber, and Brian Thomas — a trio which, if memory serves, put up one million yards last year in Baton Rouge.
Lane Kiffin comes to Gainesville two years later than some fans wanted him to be there permanently. Kiffin brings with him a senior quarterback in Jaxson Dart and a high-powered offense to Gainesville. At. this point of the season injuries will surely have taken a toll on one or both teams. Ole Miss is just 13-10 on the road under Kiffin — 7-5 in the last two seasons. If the Gators are 7-3 at this point the season it should be a great home crowd, one that can help in a close game against the Rebels.
Florida State lost an incredible 10 players to the NFL Draft and replaced Travis Jordan with DJ Uiagalelei. He may be a former five-star, number-one quarterback but he’s on his third school and in his fifth year of college for a reason. Florida State is putting a lot of faith in a quarterback who has turned from a five-star to a journeyman.
Florida Gators’ floor
3-9
If you don’t want to read any further, I get it. Stop now.
This is a doomsday scenario where the Gators lose to Miami, UCF, and Florida State. No State championships here. We’ll give Florida wins over Samford, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State. Other than that this is a scenario where things go bad quickly. Whether it be by injury or just the weight of an unrelenting schedule breaking the Gators, things go bad quickly and stay bad here.
To start, this scenario sees Florida lose the last six games of the season. The five-game run in November is brutal and those losses will stack up quickly as the ball gets rolling down the hill with Georgia in Jacksonville. The Gators have been terrible in November under Napier with a 2-6 record and have lost their last six games in November.
That doesn’t include either of his games against Georgia, which were played in October each of the last two seasons. Florida doesn’t quit, you can give Napier’s program that credit, which I think they deserve. They just can’t win football games in November.
A loss in the season opener, in my opinion, would be worse for Florida than it would be for Miami. Both Billy Napier and Mario Cristobal are selling hope to their fanbases. Good luck going door-to-door hawking hope if you lose to Miami at home.
I already said it but it bears repeating. Do Not Sleep On UCF. Arkansas fired offensive coordinator Dan Enos after he asked KJ Jefferson to cut his legs off and stay in the pocket to throw. Their interim offensive coordinator reattached the 6-4, 250-pound quarterback’s legs and the Razorbacks stunned the Gators in The Swamp. Do you know who will make sure Jefferson runs with the football? Gus Malzahn. The Knights added a ton of skill position players and a quarterback that can beat you with his arm and his legs. Don’t sleep on UCF.
That’s it, we ran through the three wins — Samford, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State. The rest of this scenario is a bloodbath that would end up with a new coach in Gainesville.
Reality probably sees Florida end somewhere between these two scenarios with a 7-5 or 6-6 record, each of which, probably gets Napier another season at Florida.
The post Ceiling & Floor: Predicting the best and worst case for the Florida Gators in 2024 appeared first on On3.
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