Tarleton State vs Baylor prediction, odds, pick for College Football Week 1
It is time to continue our college football odds series with a Tarleton State-Baylor prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Tarleton State-Baylor.
This is it. This is the moment of truth for head coach Dave Aranda at Baylor. Aranda was seen as a rising star in the coaching profession just a few years ago. He led Baylor to a Big 12 championship and to a Sugar Bowl victory over Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss. It seemed that Baylor had found yet another quality college football head coach after Matt Rhule became a star there a few years earlier. Aranda was a top defensive coordinator in college football, having done good work at Wisconsin and then helping to lead LSU to the 2019 national championship. When he succeeded early in his tenure at Baylor, it seemed there was nowhere for Aranda to go but up. He appeared to be on his way to top status as a head coach.
The past two years at Baylor have taken his career in the wrong direction. Baylor has wilted recently. The Bears weren’t great on defense last season — Aranda’s defenses had a lot of bite at Baylor when the program was going well, but they have fallen off the pace — but the program couldn’t do much of anything on offense, and that’s where the erosion in the program has become most noticeable. For Baylor to be reasonably good — good enough, at least, to save Aranda’s job — the offense has to improve considerably. Aranda has had an offseason to make adjustments and improvements. Now we will begin to find out if those adjustments have made a real difference in Waco, where the natives are restless and the hope is that the Bears can reclaim their football identity instead of becoming a basketball school.
Here are the Tarleton State-Baylor College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Tarleton State-Baylor Odds
Tarleton State: +28.5 (-105)
Moneyline: +2200
Baylor: -28.5 (-115)
Moneyline: -8000
Over: 55.5 (-115)
Under: 55.5 (-105)
How to Watch Tarleton State vs Baylor
Time: 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN Plus
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why Tarleton State Could Cover The Spread/Win
Tarleton State could cover the spread because the spread is more than four touchdowns. Whenever you see a point spread near a threshold in football, you take notice. When we talk about a “threshold” in football point spreads, we are referring to natural spread combinations of seven, three, or four-point increments. A 7.5-point spread means a team can lose by a touchdown and still cover. A 14.5-point spread: two touchdowns … and so on. A 17.5-point spread means a team can lose by two touchdowns and a field goal and cover. You can do the math. A 28.5-point spread means Tarleton State is getting four touchdowns in this game. To be more precise about this, Tarleton State — if it can score just 14 points, which is not a lot — would need to give up more than six touchdowns to Baylor to not cover the spread. Given how badly Baylor’s offense has struggled in recent years under Dave Aranda, it’s very reasonable to think that Tarleton State can score a small amount of points and thereby force Baylor to deliver a level of offensive output it doesn’t ordinarily produce.
Why Baylor Could Cover The Spread/Win
All offseason, Dave Aranda has known that he is squarely on the hot seat at Baylor. When a coach with significant career achievements is fighting for his job, he often coaches better and makes good adjustments. Baylor was a really good team a few seasons ago under Dave Aranda. It can become good again, and it will respond with the requisite level of urgency needed to win this game by more than four touchdowns.
Final Tarleton State-Baylor Prediction & Pick
We don’t know how good Baylor’s offense truly is. Pass on this one.
Final Tarleton State-Baylor Prediction & Pick: Tarleton State +28.5
The post Tarleton State vs Baylor prediction, odds, pick for College Football Week 1 appeared first on ClutchPoints.
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