Donald Trump Overtakes Kamala Harris in Four National Polls
onald Trump has pulled ahead of Kamala Harris in four major national polls as the competition tightens in the final stretch before the election.
After trailing Harris in several surveys just weeks ago, multiple polls show Trump now has a slight lead over his opponent for the first time since early August.
The latest Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll, conducted on October 21, put Trump 2 points ahead among 1,273 likely voters, on 47 percent to Harris' 45 percent, in a 4 point swing from its previous national poll, conducted on October 6, which showed Harris with a 2 point lead. However, although the latest poll showed Trump ahead, his lead was still within the survey's margin of error. Harris' lead in the October 6 poll was also within the margin of error.
A Fox News poll, conducted between October 11 and 14 among 1,110 registered voters and 870 likely voters, also showed that Trump had overtaken Harris with a 2 point lead, on 50 percent to her 48 percent, which falls within the poll's margin of error. That is a 4-point swing from when Harris was leading Trump by 2 points a month ago, also within the margin of error.
Additionally, the latest ActiVote poll, conducted from October 3-8, showed Donald Trump holding a 2.2-point lead nationwide with a 3 percent margin of error. That came after a previous poll from ActiVote, conducted between September 25 and October 2, had Kamala Harris ahead by 1.4 point.
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Greensboro Coliseum, Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024, in Greensboro, N.C. Trump has overtaken Harris in 4 national polls. Alex Brandon/AP
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Greensboro Coliseum, Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024, in Greensboro, N.C. Trump has overtaken Harris in 4 national polls. Alex Brandon/AP
© Alex Brandon/AP
Meanwhile, in the latest national NBC News poll, conducted between October 4 and 8 among 1,000 registered voters, Trump and Harris were tied in a head-to-head matchup, but Trump lead Harris by 1 point when third party candidates were included with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
That's a change from September's NBC News poll, which found Harris leading Trump by 5 points, 49 percent-44 percent in a head-to-head matchup, though that result was within the margin of error. When third party candidates were included, Harris lead by 6 points.
Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment.
"As summer has turned to fall, any signs of momentum for Kamala Harris have stopped," Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt told NBC News. "The race is a dead heat."
But despite Trump's lead, FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker still shows that Harris is ahead nationally by 1.7 points, while pollster Nate Silver's tracker has her up by 1.6 points, and other recent polls, including polls by YouGov and Morning Consult, have given Harris a lead of up to 4 points.
Nonetheless, polling aggregators have shifted in favor of Trump in recent days, showing that he now has a greater chance than Harris of winning the election. For example, Silver's current forecast gives Trump a 52.7 percent chance of winning, compared to Harris' 47 percent.
Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics' forecast currently shows that with no toss up states, Trump is predicted to win in every battleground state, giving him 312 Electoral College votes to Harris' 227.
FiveThirtyEight's forecast has also shifted in favor of Trump. showing that he has a 52 percent chance of winning the election compared to Harris' 48 percent chance. The forecast also shows that Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state, is now set for a Trump victory, after Harris led in the state since August.
Meanwhile, Harris and Trump have equal chances of winning in Nevada—another swing state that Harris had been leading. Harris is currently projected to win in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump is forecast to take Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia.
Harris needs 44 electoral votes from toss-up states to secure victory, while Trump requires 51. If Trump won Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, he would win the election.
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