Can Donald Trump Sell a Recession?
By Hugh Cameron
U.S. News Reporter
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With the U.S. economy teetering on the edge of a downturn, and prices set to rise as a result of his trade policies, President Trump is faced with perhaps his boldest ever sales pitch: Convincing supporters that a recession, rather than a failure, is a necessary detour on the path to prosperity.
Trump's re-entry into the White House was paved with promises of immediate recovery and boosted by the near-historically low confidence Americans held in Biden's stewardship of the economy. Rather than tempering expectations, he pledged to put an end to inflation, bring down the cost of all goods, and "make America affordable again"—all supposedly starting "on day one" of his presidency.
But now, over 100 days into his second term, the tone has notably softened, as Trump's overhaul of America's trading relationships raises concerns over rising prices, increased pressure on American businesses and the potential for the worst economic downturn the country has seen since the COVID pandemic.
"If the economy suffers sustained damage, this will most likely be through a loss of international credibility and a rise in economic uncertainty," said Charlie Cornes, senior economist at the Center for Economics and Business Research, adding that concerns over trade had compounded longer-term fears over persistent inflation, with particular risks for import-reliant industries and small businesses.
Can Donald Trump Sell a Recession?
Can Donald Trump Sell a Recession? Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Getty
The administration's messaging has alternated between outright denial of an impending recession to placing blame on the previous president, but a dominant throughline has been the promise that things will have to get worse before they get better.
"I said all of these things during my campaign," Trump said of the tariffs last week during an interview with ABC. He added that his supporters "did sign up" for his economic policies in their entirety and that they were made aware of the necessary "transition period" the country would be forced to go through.
"If Trump had a clear mandate from voters, it was to lower prices and improve their cost of living—not to raise tariffs and drive up the cost of goods," said political economist Veronique de Rugy. "So no, the public didn't vote for this, even if some find the rhetoric of protectionism appealing."
The "transition period" narrative—which she called "politically convenient but economically empty"—is only one employed by the president and his Cabinet, alongside the need to accept unpleasant "medicine" to amend trade imbalances and appeals for increasingly unconfident consumers to place "trust" in President Trump and his "proven economic formula."
These messages could hold their shape a while longer, de Rugy said, particularly if the headline weaknesses are punctuated with occasional encouraging signals, such as March's jobs data, which showed that, as Karoline Leavitt put it, "the economy is starting to roar."
karoline leavitt
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt speaks during the daily press briefing in the Brady Press Briefing Room at the White House on April 28, 2025 in Washington, DC. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
Another trustworthy and likely option, according to economics professor Peter Simon, will be continuing to place blame on the previous administration and claiming that Trump inherited a structurally unsound economy from his predecessor.
In March, the White House responded to mounting concerns over a recession by clarifying that the period it was transitioning away from was "the mess that was created under Joe Biden."
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"This is Biden's Stock Market, not Trump's," the president posted to Truth Social last week, shortly after data revealed the U.S. economy had shrunk for this first time since early 2022, adding that the country will boom once it rids itself of Biden "overhang."
Caught between taking credit for the declining price of eggs and oil and shirking blame for the widening cracks in the economy as a whole, Trump struck a happy medium in his recent Meet the Press interview, telling host Kristen Welker: "I think the good parts are the Trump economy and the bad parts are the Biden economy."
While most polls point to a general feeling of economic gloom, partisan splits in the data reveal that Trump's base may be willing to accept that Biden is at least in part to blame.
Nearly half of Americans (43 percent) consider Trump the sole proprietor of the U.S. economy, according to a recent survey by Gallup. Among Republicans, however, 55 percent said Biden bore responsibility for the current state of the economy, compared to only 4 percent of Democrats. As the pollster noted, respondents' choices could be an endorsement or an attribution of blame, depending on their assessment of current economic conditions.
An earlier AP-NORC poll found that despite overall disapproval of Trump's handling of the economy, 72 percent of Republicans are confident in his methods, 55 percent either somewhat or strongly approving of his use of tariffs, and 62 percent considering the economy good shape, compared to 16 percent in December.
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US President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump arrive for the inauguration ceremony where Donald Trump will sworn in as the 47th US President in the US Capitol Rotunda in Washington, DC, on January 20,... More Melina Mara/AFP via Getty Images
While the strong Democratic opposition is unlikely to shift, announcements of trade agreements during the 90-day reciprocal tariff pause could cement support for the president's strategy from Republicans, who may accept the narrative that those harboring fears about the president's all neglected to acknowledge the "art of the deal."
However, if trade policy leads to a full-blown recession, marked by job losses, weaker growth, declining wages and rising prices as is typical, Veronique de Rugy said: "It's hard to imagine even loyal supporters won't start questioning whether the cost is worth it."
"Even if a deal with China materializes, the damage from the trade war is already significant and not easily reversible," she said. "Investment has been discouraged, supply chains disrupted, and uncertainty embedded in long-term planning."
"The damage to the country in terms of the loss of trust and confidence in the leader will not recover even if tariffs come down," Peter Simon added.
"Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further," the Federal Reserve wrote on Wednesday after voting unanimously to keep interest rates steady. In a subsequent press conference, Chair Jerome Powell said that the tariffs, if sustained at their current levels, "are likely to generate a rise in inflation, a slowdown in economic growth, and an increase in unemployment."
The central bank's decision was met with anger from the president and "will fuel" a drop in the support he enjoys, Peter Simon told Newsweek.
"But his support will not ever collapse entirely," he said, noting that the president's treatment of the mainstream media, the Democratic Party, woke culture and immigration ensures there will always remain a robust subset of voters whose adoration of Trump will outsize their anger at any potential economic collapse, and who will "happily go down with that ship."
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