Marina Rodriguez vs. Iasmin Lucindo prediction, odds, pick for UFC 307
We’re back with another betting prediction and pick as UFC 307 continues to roll from Salt Lake City. We turn our attention towards this next ranked matchup in the Women’s Strawweight (115) Division as No. 6-ranked Marina Rodriguez takes on No. 14-ranked Iasmin Lucindo in a battle of two Brazilian warriors. Check out our UFC odds series for our Rodriguez-Lucindo prediction and pick.
Marina Rodriguez (17-4-2) has gone 7-4-2 inside the UFC since 2018. Cracking the top of the rankings with four consecutive victories, she’s now lost three of her last four fights against top-level competition. She’s coming in off a split decision loss to Jessica Andrade and she’ll be hungry to grab this redeeming win as the betting underdog. Rodriguez stands 5’6″ with a 65-inch reach.
Iasmin Lucindo (16-5) has gone 3-1 in the UFC since 2022. After losing her debut bout on short notice, Lucindo has reeled three consecutive victories over Brogan Walker, Polyana Viana, and Karolina Kowalkiewicz most recently. She’s been dominant since and would make a massive leap in the rankings with a win here. Lucindo stands 5’3″ with a 66-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 307 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 307 Odds: Marina Rodriguez-Iasmin Lucindo Odds
Marina Rodriguez: +150
Iasmin Lucindo: -180
Over 2.5 rounds: -330
Under 2.5 rounds: +240
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Why Marina Rodriguez Will Win
Marina Rodriguez is back once again following her last loss in April 2024 to Jessica Andrade. It was a hard-fought, back and forth fight that saw both women land a high amount of volume on each other. Andrade had the advantage in landing the more damaging shots, but Rodriguez had her moments of output that gave her a chance to win this fight on volume alone. While she has seven of her wins by way of knockout, she hasn’t been much of a threat to finish her last few fights against tough opponents. Instead, Rodriguez should look to use her rangy striking and elbows in deterring her opponent from stepping in on her.
Marina Rodriguez has struggled against seasoned veterans over her last few fights, so it’ll be interesting to see how she approaches a fighter 15 years younger than herself. She’s a very smart striker and doesn’t over-extend herself while keeping a tight defense. If she’s able to shell and use her arm guard against the bursts of Lucindo, she should be able to find a home in her jab and offer consistent striking output throughout this fight.
Why Iasmin Lucindo Will Win
Iasmin Lucindo has been perfect following a loss in her debut and at just 22 years old, she’s maturing as a fighter each time she steps into the cage. She fights with a mean streak and can take a tremendous amount of damage before displaying any signs of weakness. She’s very keen to march forward and should have a willing dance partner to brawl against in Marina Rodriguez. Still, her age can show during her bouts and she puts a ton of confidence behind her chin holding up. While she shouldn’t look to sustain too much damage, her youth and fresh chin could serve her well against a volume striker like Martinez.
Iasmin Lucindo also has three wins by way of submission and she showed flashes of her submission capabilities against Polyana Viana with an arm triangle choke. Lucindo will certainly have the strength advantage over her opponent and could force this fight to the ground if need be. She’s shown very good control from those positions and her opponent has been known to struggle in getting back to her feet once on the ground. Look for Lucindo to exploit the stylistic matchups throughout this fight.
Final Marina Rodriguez-Iasmin Lucindo Prediction & Pick
This will be a very high-level fight between two very skilled fighters within the Strawweight Division. Marina Rodriguez has emerged victorious against some of the best ranked competition in the division, but she’ll be facing a fighter 15 years her junior, which doesn’t historically bode well for the older fighter. Iasmin Lucindo is on a dominant three-fight winning streak and her aggression has served her well up to this point.
Ultimately, we should see a decent discrepancy in power here and while I think Rodriguez will make herself very tough to bring down during this fight, Iasmin Lucindo should be the one landing the harder, more damaging shots. With this fight at elevation, I expect Marina Rodriguez to have the more consistent output throughout this fight as she does does enough in the later rounds to edge a win. Let’s roll with the underdog in this one.
Final Marina Rodriguez-Isamin Lucindo Prediction & Pick: Marina Rodriguez (+150)
The post Marina Rodriguez vs. Iasmin Lucindo prediction, odds, pick for UFC 307 appeared first on ClutchPoints.
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