China Moves to Win Trade War as Trump Escalates, Expert Warns
Economics
Kevin Helms
China Moves to Win Trade War as Trump Escalates, Expert Warns
China is throwing down the economic gauntlet as Trump’s 104% tariffs take effect, signaling a long-game trade war strategy fueled by yuan devaluation and relentless countermeasures.
China Moves to Win Trade War as Trump Escalates, Expert Warns
Trump Escalates, but China’s Playing for the Win—Expert Sees Warpath Ahead
China is sharpening its stance in the economic clash with the United States, issuing what financial leader Nigel Green has characterized as a deliberate and forceful message. On April 8, the CEO and founder of international financial advisory firm Devere Group warned that recent policy signals from Beijing point to a government readying itself for a long-term trade war.
Central to that message is China’s move to let the yuan depreciate, which Green described as a calculated maneuver. He stressed:
The weakening yuan is not simply market mechanics at work; it is Beijing putting Washington on notice that far more forceful actions are in reserve if escalation continues.
Facing heightened U.S.-China trade tensions, Beijing allowed the yuan’s reference rate to cross the symbolic 7.20 mark per dollar for the first time since September 2023, signaling a shift in foreign exchange policy. The People’s Bank of China set the fixing at 7.2038 on April 8, leading to the onshore yuan’s decline, despite improving investor sentiment. Analysts interpret this as a move toward managed depreciation to support exports amid economic strain, though sharp devaluation remains risky due to capital flight and trade negotiation setbacks.
President Donald Trump escalated pressure with threats of 50% tariffs, prompting China to vow retaliation and impose rare earth controls. According to the White House press secretary, an additional 104% in tariffs took effect at noon Eastern time on April 8 due to China’s failure to lift its retaliatory measures. Green dismissed the idea that Beijing would fold under mounting pressure from Trump’s administration. Instead, he emphasized the Chinese government’s strategy of resilience and counter-planning. “This is now a battle of endurance. Trump is ratcheting up the pressure, believing he can force concessions through intimidation.” He contrasted this with Beijing’s approach:
Beijing, however, is determined to show that it will not be cowed. Rather than rolling over, China is fortifying itself — insulating key industries, diversifying its supply chains, and preparing policy weapons for a prolonged standoff.
Behind the scenes, both governments are proceeding cautiously, but Green observed increasing confidence from China. He said the timing and nature of the yuan’s decline reflect Beijing’s serious stance, describing it as a calculated move rather than a short-term devaluation. Green characterized it as a clear signal to the White House that further escalation will carry consequences. He added that the financial sector is already adapting, with China signaling its readiness to use significant economic tools if tensions continue.
“Trump’s White House should not mistake restraint for weakness. Beijing is showing strategic patience, but there’s real steel underneath. If Washington continues to escalate, China’s response will not be meek — it will be methodical, far-reaching, and designed to maximize impact where it hurts the most,” Green opined. He added that global markets are entering a phase where tactical actions, such as a weakening yuan, are not solely financial signals but part of broader geopolitical strategy.
The Devere executive advised investors to prepare for a long-term shift, emphasizing that China is planning for sustained change. He said structural changes in global trade could define the next decade. Green concluded with a stark forecast:
Beijing is setting the terms of engagement. Washington can choose to escalate, but it will not do so without facing increasingly sophisticated countermeasures. China is no longer trying to avoid a trade war at all costs — it is preparing to win one if forced into it.
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