Republicans Face Uphill Battle to Keep the House
By Kate Plummer
Republicans could risk losing the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections due to their narrow majority, according to political analysts.
Newsweek contacted the National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee (NRCC) to comment on this story.
Why It Matters
Traditionally, the party that does not hold the White House tends to do better in midterm elections. In 2018, Republicans lost the House and the Democrats gained 41 seats.
House of Representatives
The chamber of the House of Representatives is seen before the State of the Union, Tuesday night, March 1, 2022, at the Capitol in Washington. Julia Nikhinson/Pool via AP
In the upcoming 2026 midterm elections, Republicans hold a narrow 220-213 majority, meaning a net loss of just seven seats would cost them control of the chamber.
What To Know
This week, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) identified 35 Republican-held districts it is targeting for the 2026 midterms. While former President Trump won 13 of these districts by double digits, the DCCC expressed confidence in its chances to flip several.
Only three House Republicans represent districts that Democratic nominee Kamala Harris carried in 2024. On the other hand, Democrats hold 13 districts that Trump won.
Meanwhile, according to CNN pollster Harry Enten, Trump's disapproval rating is at 43 percent - a similar level to November 2018, when the Republicans lost the House.
Republicans won two Florida special elections in April, though the narrow margins could raise concerns within the party about waning support in some areas.
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Experts suggested these factors could lead to Democratic victory in the House.
Republicans face uphill battle to keep House
The Republicans could lose control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Getty
What People Are Saying
William F. Hall, adjunct professor of political science and business at Webster University in St. Louis, Missouri, told Newsweek there could be a "major shift" in the House makeup after the midterms.
"It is my opinion, increasingly, in view of the extremely negative ratings experienced by a Republican led Administration, it does appear that, barring some highly unlikely unforeseen circumstances, the midterm elections will bring about a major shift in the makeup of the House of Representatives, with an overwhelming victory for Democratic House candidates," he said. "This view reflects the negative ratings held by a Republican led Administration, virtually in every significant category, related to political success, including the state of the economy, employment, inflation and especially lack of optimism being displayed by the vast number of Americans."
Kyle Kondik wrote in a recent analysis for the University of Virginia's Center for Politics Crystal Ball report: "Democrats became favorites to flip the House as soon as Trump won [in 2024], and what has happened since then has not really changed that assessment,."
He predicts that 207 seats are safe, likely or lean Republican while 209 are safe, likely or lean Democratic.
However, Heath Brown, associate professor of public policy at City University of New York said politics was too unpredictable at the moment to make strong predictions. "If there's someone in the prognostication business that feels confident about anything right now, that's something to take note of," he told Newsweek.
"I think most people wake up each morning bracing to read something truly without precedent in their morning newsfeed. In that environment, 2026 projections should be taken with a boulder-sized grain of salt."
What Happens Next
Roughly 18 months remain before the midterm elections. In that time, the political landscape could well change in ways we cannot yet predict.
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