What the Florida Gators must do to make the NCAA Tournament
GAINESVILLE, Fla. — The Florida Gators‘ NCAA Tournament hopes and dreams were on the way to being read their last rites on Friday afternoon. Trailing No. 9 Georgia 4-2 after seven innings, the Gators were desperate. Florida, essentially, has been playing with its back against the wall the last month. A loss on Friday would have nearly washed the Gators’ path to the NCAA Tournament away.
“This is uncharted territory,” Florida manager Kevin O’Sullivan said after a loss to Kentucky last weekend. “I spent nine years at Clemson and this is my 17th year here, you take out COVID and that’s 25 years I’ve been to the postseason. I mean 25-straight years. This is frustrating for everybody. We still have it in front of us but we have some work to do now.”
Luke Heyman’s 10th inning, three-run home run gave the Gators life and made the priest on his way to deliver the Gators’ last rights turnaround. Now, Florida has a chance on Saturday to really take control of their fate.
To answer the most popular question first, Florida has to finish the season with a winning record. The NCAA mandates teams must have a winning record (better than .500) to earn an at-large bid. There are 31 conferences meaning 31 automatic bids going to conference tournament champions. That leaves 33 at-large bids to dole out.
Again, in order to be eligible to gain an at-large bid you need to be BETTER THAN .500 or win your conference tournament and games played during your conference tournament count towards your overall record.
Let’s break down Florida’s NCAA Tournament résumé, what will happen with a win or a loss on Saturday, and how O’Sullivan can avoid missing the postseason for the first time in a quarter century.
Florida Gators 2024 NCAA Tournament résumé
(All numbers heading into the final regular season game)
Record: 27-26SEC Record: 12-17RPI: 25SOS: 1
If the Gators beat Georgia on Saturday
This is, obviously, the best-case scenario. If the Gators beat Georgia on Saturday with Jac Caglianone starting on the mound the Gators will be two games over .500 at 28-26. Beating Georgia would ensure that the Gators finish with a top-25 RPI and the most difficult schedule in the country. That would also give them 13 SEC wins, which has historically been an imaginary benchmark for teams to make the NCAA tournament. Since 1999 three SEC teams have made the NCAA Tournament with only 12 league wins with Alabama in 2021 being the last to do it.
A win would make the SEC Tournament, in theory, less important for the Gators. If Florida were to lose its single-elimination game on Tuesday they would finish one game above .500 (28-27), still with the most difficult schedule in the country and a top-25 RPI. That’s a strong case and a very similar one to the 2013 Gators who finished the regular season 29-27. That team went one-and-done in Hoover to finish one game over .500 (29-28). Those Gators were sent to the Indiana Regional as an at-large three-seed. If The Gators won on Tuesday and lost their next two games in Hoover they would still finish a game over .500 (29-28).
It goes to show the importance of Saturday’s season finale.
If the Gators lose to Georgia on Saturday
The season isn’t over, but that priest who made a u-turn in the hospital would be coming back to the hospital room ready to read Florida their last rites. If the Gators lose on Sunday they will finish the regular season with a 27-27 (12-18 SEC) record. The Gators have to finish over .500 to even be eligible to make the NCAA Tournament. That means they would need to advance all the way to the SEC Tournament Semifinal, winning at least three games in Hoover. It’s not impossible, but given Florida’s bullpen depth, it would take multiple consecutive performances from pitchers that we haven’t seen over the last three months.
Florida could also get an automatic NCAA Tournament bid by winning the SEC Tournament outright. While Florida has won the regular season SEC title six times under Kevin O’Sullivan, they have only won the SEC Tournament twice during O’Sullivan’s tenure (2011, 2015).
The Bottom Line
Florida, despite how frustrating and inconsistent they have played in 2024 can do itself a huge favor with a win in Athens on Saturday night. A win on Saturday and a win on Tuesday might be enough to do it but you’re counting on the NCAA Committee to really lean into the strength of schedule, RPI, and how talented the SEC is. Historically, 13 wins and a top-30 RPI would get a team like Florida in and the No. 1 strength of schedule would be the icing on that cake.
The post What the Florida Gators must do to make the NCAA Tournament appeared first on On3.
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