Could the Next Pope Be American? These Are the Dark-Horse Contenders
By Joshua Rhett Miller
Chief Investigative Reporter
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As the College of Cardinals readies to select the next leader of the Roman Catholic Church, several strong candidates have emerged, although veteran observers say the next pontiff is unlikely to be American.
The top contenders to succeed Pope Francis and lead the church's roughly 1.4 billion followers include Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle and Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana, among others.
While Francis made history as the first Jesuit and Latin American pope, continuing that narrative of change with the selection of a candidate from the United States appears highly improbable, despite the U.S. having one of the largest Roman Catholic populations in the world.
Ten of the 133 cardinals eligible to vote for the next pope at the Vatican's Sistine Chapel when the conclave begins Wednesday hail from the U.S., second only to Italy, which has 17 electors. Three of those Americans — Cardinals Joseph Tobin, Timothy Dolan and Raymond Burke — could garner influence in Wednesday's conclave, but still appear unlikely to succeed Francis, who died on April 21 at age 88.
u.s. cardinals to vote in conclave
The ten U.S. cardinals eligible to vote for the next pope of the Catholic Church, top row from left: Raymond Burke, Blase Cupich, Daniel DiNardo, Timothy Dolan and Kevin Farrell; bottom row from left, Wilton... More AP Photo
Tobin, the archbishop of Newark, New Jersey, is a strong candidate for the progressive wing of the voting bloc, according to some experts, as he speaks five languages and is known for welcoming Catholics from the LGBTQ+ community. Pope Benedict XVI appointed the Detroit native in 2010 as secretary of the Vatican's office overseeing religious orders, where he sought to mend ties with U.S. nuns facing complaints that they had become too liberal.
Tobin questioned the probe and was later reassigned to Indianapolis, where he became an archbishop in 2012. Four years later, Pope Francis tapped him to become a cardinal and archbishop of Newark.
David Gibson, director of the Center on Religion and Culture at Fordham University, believes Tobin possesses strong qualities to lead the Roman Catholic Church, however unlikely his candidacy ultimately may be.
"If you look at Tobin's profile, he's perfect," Gibson told Newsday.
cardinal joseph tobin
Cardinal Joseph Tobin, archbishop of Newark, New Jersey, is considering to be a compelling candidate by some observers, although isn't widely expected to become the next pope. Franco Origlia/Getty Images
Still, the primary hurdle for Tobin and other Americans like Dolan and Burke remains the United States' global dominance, as has traditionally been the case, Gibson said.
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"You didn't want to have an American pope, given that you had an American superpower," Gibson said. "It was just too much concentrated [power]."
John Thavis, Rome's bureau chief for the Catholic News Service, agreed with Gibson's take regarding Tobin.
"I very much doubt it," Thavis told Newsday. "I don't think the world of the church is ready for an American pope."
timothy dolan
Cardinal Timothy Dolan, archbishop of New York, leads a mass at Saint John Lateran on May 2 in Rome, Italy, where he traveled following the death of Pope Francis on April 21. Mario Tama/Getty Images
Fifty-seven percent of Americans believe it doesn't matter where the next pope comes from, according to a YouGov poll taken hours after Pope Francis' death. Thirteen percent of respondents said they were unsure, while 11 percent said they'd prefer an American.
Dolan, the 75-year-old archbishop of New York, reportedly received votes during the 2013 conclave that elected Francis, but isn't expected to be a major factor this time around.
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"I don't think so," the Rev. Thomas Reese, a senior analyst for Religion News Service, told Newsday, adding he had not heard "any buzz" surrounding Dolan.
"Certainly would have been an interesting pope," Thavis said. "But I think that time has come and gone."
Dolan, for his part, downplayed the possibility of becoming the next pontiff as he prepared to travel from New York to Rome late last month for Francis' funeral and the coming conclave.
"Oh, I'm not betting the lunch money on it, so I hope nobody else does," he told the New York Times prior to his flight. "I got a better chance at batting cleanup for the Yankees than I do being pope."
Burke, a Catholic traditionalist who frequently clashed with Francis, is also seen as a potential candidate, but is likely to ultimately fall short of the necessary two-third majority vote, analysts said.
"It will not be another Latin American, it will most likely not be an American, but this could be the wild card," Melissa Wilde, a sociologist of religion and inequality and chairperson of the Department of Sociology at the University of Pennsylvania, told USA Today. "I would say Asian or African, if not one of them, American, if not one of them, an Italian."
The Rev. James Bretzke, a professor of theology at John Carroll University in Ohio, predicted Burke might garner a few votes in the early rounds before disappearing "totally from the tallies after that" as cardinals switch to other conservatives gaining more momentum.
raymond burke
Cardinal Raymond Burke at St. Peter's Basilica in June 2018. Franco Origlia/Getty Images
Tobin, Dolan and Burke may have insurmountable odds against them simply due to their nationality, Bretzke said. Italians have traditionally been viewed within the church as diplomats, making them more appealing across ethic groups, though that appears to be waning, he said. There has not been an Italian pope since John Paul I, who was elected in 1978. He died 33 days into his papacy.
"[T]hese considerations will continue, in my opinion, to prevent any American from being elected the next pope, even if otherwise he might be well qualified," Bretzke told USA Today. "America's image in the world simply is too powerful — and to be blunt, ugly."
Tobin could become an intriguing wild card if the conclave lasts several days and none of the higher-profile candidates reach the required two-third threshold, Thavis said.
"Then somebody like Cardinal Tobin could be in play," he told Newsday.
Other observers said Tobin would likely be a factor — if he wasn't an American.
"If he was an Italian, he would be a candidate," Reese said.
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