2 Jets in danger of regression in 2024-25 season
The Winnipeg Jets failed to win the Stanley Cup in 2024. The Jets were contenders for the Stanley Cup entering the postseason. However, Winnipeg could not get past the Colorado Avalanche in the first round of the playoffs. Colorado defeated Winnipeg in five games to move one step closer to the Stanley Cup.
The Jets seemed to have found a formula that worked a year ago. Winnipeg previously relied almost entirely on the performance of goalie Connor Hellebuyck. If Hellebuyck played well, then the team played well. If he didn’t, then Winnipeg usually struggled to win games.
In 2023-24, Winnipeg played very sound defensive hockey in front of Hellebuyck. This allowed the team to pull off wins even if Hellebuyck didn’t play well in goal. And that system of play allowed them to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs in rather impressive fashion.
The Jets certainly have breakout candidates who could help them make progress in the year ahead. However, there are players who may take a step back. Especially if they struggle to adapt to the system employed by new head coach Scott Arniel. Here are two Jets roster members who could regress in 2024-25.
Vladislav Namestnikov could fall back to Earth
Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
Vladislav Namestnikov could be a game-changer for the Jets in 2024-25. He had one of his best offensive seasons for Winnipeg during the regular season last year. And he should receive every opportunity this upcoming campaign to continue playing well in a major role.
However, it is worth pointing out that this goes both ways in Namestinkov’s case. The upcoming free agent is also a prime regression candidate. He scored 11 goals and 37 points in the 2023-24 regular season. These totals represent his highest goal total since 2021-22 and his highest point total since 2018-19.
The veteran forward finished the season with 13.5 Goals Above Replacement, according to Evolving Hockey. No skater on the Jets had a higher GAR than Namestnikov. Additionally, his 2.2 WAR came in as the highest WAR among Winnipeg’s skaters. The only players to beat these numbers are goalies Connor Hellebuyck and Laurent Brossoit.
In saying this, Namestnikov vastly outperformed his expected analytics. His 13.5 Goals Above Replacement are well above his xGAR of 2.0. Additionally, his xWAR (0.3) is significantly lower than the 2.2 WAR he recorded this past season.
Namestinkov can absolutely be a valuable player even with regression involved. However, it could be a bit of a steep drop for the former first-round pick. It’ll certainly be interesting to see how he performs for the Jets in the year ahead.
Alex Iafallo could regress
Alex Iafallo came to the Jets as part of the Pierre-Luc Dubois trade with the Los Angeles Kings. Iafallo emerged as a solid bottom-six center for the Kings during his time in California. And in Winnipeg, he provided a lot of value down the lineup for his new team.
Iafallo saw his offensive impact fall off a cliff after this trade. However, he played incredibly well defensively. The Eden, New York native finished with 6.8 Defensive Goals Above Replacement in 2023-24, according to Evolving Hockey. This was the highest DGAR of any Jets skater during the regular season.
In saying this, there exists evidence that his defensive impact could fall off a little bit in 2024-25. While Iafallo had an impressive 1.53 Goals Against Per 60 Minutes at 5v5, he did outperform his expected total. His xGA/60 was 2.17, which is still a fine total but a notable difference nonetheless.
Regression does not automatically mean that a player will become bad. It simply means that the production they put up in one season may be notably difference in years following. Iafallo should certainly be helpful for the Jets, but his production could take a hit in the year ahead.
The post 2 Jets in danger of regression in 2024-25 season appeared first on ClutchPoints.
Welcome to Billionaire Club Co LLC, your gateway to a brand-new social media experience! Sign up today and dive into over 10,000 fresh daily articles and videos curated just for your enjoyment. Enjoy the ad free experience, unlimited content interactions, and get that coveted blue check verification—all for just $1 a month!
Account Frozen
Your account is frozen. You can still view content but cannot interact with it.
Please go to your settings to update your account status.
Open Profile Settings