Eastern Kentucky vs. Mississippi State prediction, odds, pick for College Football Week 1
The Jeff Lebby era begins in Starkville as Mississippi State hosts Eastern Kentucky at Davis Wade Stadium in Week 1 action. We continue our college football odds series with an Eastern Kentucky-Mississippi State prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Lebby, who was the offensive coordinator at SEC newcomer Oklahoma, will look to get the Bulldogs back on track after a 5-7 campaign in 2023. He’ll have to replace a lot of production on both sides of the ball to do it, as Mississippi State will lean on transfers in his first season on the job.
Meanwhile, the Colonels were 5-6 a season ago, but it’s notable that four of those losses were only by a field goal. They were also competitive in a 28-17 loss at Kentucky.
Here are the College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Eastern Kentucky-Mississippi State Odds
Eastern Kentucky: +24.5 (-115)
Moneyline: +1160
Mississippi State: -24.5 (-105)
Moneyline: -2800
Over: 60.5 (-115)
Under: 60.5 (-105)
How to Watch Eastern Kentucky vs. Mississippi State
Time: 6:00 p.m. ET/3:00 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN+
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why Eastern Kentucky Could Cover The Spread/Win
Mississippi State has 11 new starters on offense. Is that a recipe for a sloppy start in Lebby’s first game on the sidelines?
If it is, that’s where Eastern Kentucky can make things interesting. The Bulldogs struggled to find points on offense down the stretch last season, scoring 13 or fewer in their final five SEC games. While there are fresh faces, it could take a bit to get this thing going the way Lebby wants it.
Can the Colonels also challenge Mississippi State on defense? The SEC side has to replace a pair of stud linebackers in sixth-round draft pick Nathaniel Watson and Jett Johnson, who combined for 267 total tackles (Watson 137, Johnson 130) and 16 sacks. The next closest tackler – cornerback and fourth-round draft pick Decamerion Richardson – had 79.
Combine all that together, and there is a path for Eastern Kentucky to make this game more interesting than most would expect.
Why Mississippi State Could Cover The Spread/Win
Just like Mississippi State, the Colonels will also be replacing key production on offense. However, this situation is a little different.
Parker McKinney’s career stats at Eastern Kentucky are longer than a CVS receipt, as he posted a whopping 12,756 passing yards and 94 touchdowns, and 1,671 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns in his six (!) seasons at the school. Matt Morrissey and Cameron Hergott may both see action in this game, but Morrissey is the likely option for the Colonels moving forward after throwing for nearly 2,000 yards last season at Western Illinois.
Eastern Kentucky also has to fill the production of its top three receivers from 2023, so the offense may be a work in progress in the early going. The strength of the Mississippi State defense is the experience at defensive back, and that could be an issue for the visiting team when it comes to building momentum on offense.
That may not be the case for the Bulldogs. Since 2019, Lebby has led all active offensive coordinators in 50-plus-point games (14). His Oklahoma offenses finished in the top six nationally in total offense in three of the past five seasons. He brought in Baylor transfer quarterback Blake Shapen, who threw for 2,188 yards and 13 touchdowns last season, to lead what should eventually be a dynamic offensive unit.
Even if it takes another season to reach elite status, there’s no doubt that Lebby can work his magic to make the Mississippi State offense respectable right off the bat. If he can, Eastern Kentucky could have issues slowing down the Bulldogs.
Final Eastern Kentucky-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick
This game has the potential to be tricky for the Bulldogs.
Despite winning just five of them, Eastern Kentucky was competitive in a lot of games last season. They competed with Kentucky in Lexington, and that team was probably better than Mississippi State will be in Week 1 under the new regime. This is without question a rebuilding process for the Bulldogs, and there is reason to wonder how crisp they’ll be with so many new players in the mix.
However, recent history tells us that even when it ranks in the bottom tier of the SEC, Mississippi State has been rather dominant against FCS competition. In its last four games against those opponents, the Bulldogs have won 48-7 (Southeastern Louisiana in 2023), 56-7 (ETSU in 2022), 55-10 (Tennessee State in 2021), and 45-7 (Abilene Christian in 2019).
The number would be better at 24 points, but the trends suggest the Bulldogs are in a decent spot to give Lebby a convincing win in his first game on the job.
Final Eastern Kentucky-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick: Mississippi State -24.5 (-105)
The post Eastern Kentucky vs. Mississippi State prediction, odds, pick for College Football Week 1 appeared first on ClutchPoints.
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