Is South Carolina’s resume good enough for the postseason? Let’s find out
Two weeks ago, South Carolina was in about as good of a position as it could have been. The Gamecocks were not only in a position to host a regional but on the verge of becoming a top 8 seed to host a Super Regional.
But after an abysmal final two weeks of the season, that has all changed. After ending the regular season on a six-game losing streak, there will no longer be postseason baseball in Columbia this year. At this point, South Carolina is fighting for its NCAA Tournament lives.
Despite all this, head coach Mark Kingston still believes his group will be fine. After Saturday’s loss, he said he’ll stick with the precedent that’s been set. What’s he referring to?
“The precedent is if you get to 13 (SEC wins) and you have an RPI better than 30, you always make it,” Kingston said.
But is that going to be good enough? Can South Carolina bank on what it has done up to this point to make the tournament? Let’s do a deep dive into this commonly asked question.
The metrics
Like Kingston said, the precedent has been set. As it stands right now, South Carolina is in the clear for what he’s talking about. Here’s where the team stands in some of the big metrics to pay attention to.
RPI: 19, strength of schedule: 7, Q1 wins: 9, Q2 wins: 6
The big numbers to pay attention to are RPI and SOS. Right now, those are in good standing and should be enough for the Gamecocks to get in. And at the same time, they have some quality wins on their schedule.
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It feels like a lifetime ago, but South Carolina swept then-No. 3 Vanderbilt in pretty convincing fashion. The Commodores stumbled as the season went on, but we’ll get to them and other teams in a little bit. Beyond that, the Gamecocks have a gem on their resume with a series win against Kentucky, who will most likely be a top 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Other notable games from this year: series wins on the road at Florida and Missouri and a midweek win against a top 10 North Carolina squad.
So from all this information, it would seem South Carolina has done enough. But you also have to consider the eye test and the way in which the team finished the season.
How much the end of the season could impact things
After an all-important series victory on the road at Missouri, things looked good for South Carolina. All it had to do was avoid a big meltdown in the final six SEC games of the year and everything would be fine.
But as the story goes, the Gamecocks went 0-6 during that stretch, being swept by both Georgia and Tennessee. During that time, they were outscored 60-28 and struggled in pretty much all aspects at one point or another.
And it’s not out of the question that South Carolina could go into the selection show next Monday on a seven-game losing streak. That is if it goes one-and-done in the SEC Tournament. If that’s the case, things become more curious to say the least.
Hoover — what can they do to help their case?
Speaking of the SEC Tournament, the Gamecocks will be the No. 10 seed and face No. 7 seed Alabama on Tuesday at approximately 2 p.m. Much like South Carolina, the Crimson Tide are in a similar position, and so are a lot of other teams.
Heading into Hoover, there are five teams with a 13-17 SEC record. According to D1 Baseball’s Mark Etheridge, there’s room for all of them to make the tournament. If that ends up being the case, the SEC could potentially have a record 11 tournament bids. Here’s a look at how these teams stack up.
South Carolina: RPI: 19, strength of schedule: 7, Q1 wins: 9, Q2 wins: 6
Florida: RPI: 24, strength of schedule: 1, Q1 wins: 13, Q2 wins: 2
Alabama: RPI: 18, strength of schedule: 5, Q1 wins: 13, Q2 wins: 4
Vanderbilt: RPI: 27, strength of schedule: 16, Q1 wins: 10, Q2 wins: 3
LSU: RPI: 30, strength of schedule: 21, Q1 wins: 7, Q2 wins: 11
Based off these numbers, things look pretty tight. But South Carolina still has good numbers, which matters a lot at the end of the day. Plus, the Gamecocks have series victories over Florida and Vanderbilt, which could help. They did drop two of three in Tuscaloosa back in March and didn’t face LSU this season.
It’s also important to remember that four of these teams will face off in the first round in Hoover. The Gamecocks get Alabama while Vanderbilt plays Florida. So if South Carolina gets by the Tide, that should be more than enough to lock up a postseason berth. 14 SEC wins along with the other metrics should be good.
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The verdict — what do I think?
I’ll be honest, I think South Carolina is going to be fine, regardless of how things turn out in Hoover.
I just think the RPI combined with the strength of schedule are in a very good place right now. I mean, this team played six top 10 opponents in series this year, including Clemson. Plus, that midweek win over UNC was crucial to get. It’s not like the Gamecocks played a nobody quality schedule. Sure, there were some struggles along the way, but they played against the best week in and week out. And I doubt that will get overlooked.
There shouldn’t be any debate if South Carolina goes out and wins its first game in the SEC Tournament. Obviously, if the team goes out right away in the first round, there could be some discussion. But I still think they’ve earned their spot in the field of 64. And honestly, I do expect majority of those SEC bubble teams to make the cut. That’s just how good this conference is.
But we’ll just have to see how everything plays out. It should be an interesting week in Hoover and days leading up to the selection show on Monday, May 27 at noon.
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