Cesar Almeida vs. Ihor Potieria prediction, odds, pick for UFC 307
We’re back with yet another betting prediction and pick for UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. as we turn toward the Prelims portion for the opening fight in the Middleweight (185) Division. Exciting finishers will meet as Brazil’s Cesar Almeida takes on Ukraine’s Ihor Potieria. Check out our UFC odds series for our Almeida-Potieria prediction and pick.
Cesar Almeida (5-1) comes into this fight with a 1-1 UFC record over the last year. He’s very fresh onto the professional MMA scene and dropped the first fight of his career with a split decision loss to Roman Kopylov in his last fight. Still, it was a very promising showing and he comes into his third UFC fight as a heavy betting favorite. Almeida stands 6’1″ with a 74-inch reach.
Ihot Potieria (21-6) has gone 2-4 through his UFC competition since 2022. He’s won just one of his last four fights with a unanimous decision coming against Robert Bryczek in February 2024. He was finished in the other three fights and most recently lost via submission to Michel Pereira. Look for him to mound a comeback effort during this bout. Potieria stands 6’3″ with a 75-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 307 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 307 Odds: Cesar Almeida-Ihor Potieria Odds
Cesar Almeida: -425
Ihor Potieria: +330
Over 1.5 rounds: +110
Under 1.5 rounds: -140
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Why Cesar Almeida Will Win
Cesar Almeida immediately made a splash in the UFC due to his no-frills striking style and ability to knock opponents out at a moment’s notice. He’s a Glory Kickboxing champion and has wild power behind each one of his shots. Facing a dangerous striker like Roman Kopylov in just his second UFC appearance was a tall task and while Almeida couldn’t get the victory, he swung momentum in his favor on several occasions and was able to take the fight to a split decision. It’s still early to tell whether his skills will fully transfer to the UFC, but he’s off to a very good start and clearly the betting lines reflect that.
Cesar Almeida fights with a fearless attitude and isn’t scared of absorbing punishment from his opponent in the pocket. He lands over four significant strikes per minute and does so at 61% accuracy. While Almeida typically stands straight up in the pocket, he goes a great job of moving his head and working towards the counter punches. His opponent is very prone to rushing in and creating wild exchanges, so don’t be surprised if Almeida sits back and finds the perfect shot to end this fight.
Why Ihor Potieria Will Win
Ihor Potieria hasn’t had much go his way since joining the UFC roster, but he’s always good for an exciting fight and given his ability to force opponents into a wild brawl, he always stands a chance at landing a clean blow and ending the fight early. He owns nine wins by knockout and seven by submission, totally twice as many wins as his opponent has professional fights. Experience and cage time will be huge advantage in Potieria’s favor, but he’ll have to be diligent in not underestimating the power of his opponent. The only chance Potieria stands to win this fight is making smart decisions and backing away when he feels the pressure from his opponent.
Potieria is known for his forward-marching style and relentless pressure in the face of adversity. He’s bound to get clocked occasionally as he wants towards his opponent, but his will keeps him upright and he’s dangerous at all points of the fight. Given his proficiency on the ground, Potieria could see success against Almeida if he’s able to tie him up into submission attempts and potentially catch him sleeping.
Final Cesar Almeida-Ihor Potieria Prediction & Pick
This will be an exciting fight from start to finish as both men are known to throw caution to the wind and exchange in an all-out brawl on the feet. Ihor Potieria has the slight physical advantages and he has four times the amount of cage time his opponent has seen at the professional level. Still, the betting odds are where they are for a reason and Cesar Almeida possesses the perfect style to combat Potieria.
Given Potieria’s tendency to turn ever fight into a brawl, it hasn’t been working in his favor lately and Almeida will be more than willing to engage Potieria on the feet. This bodes poorly for him as he’s taken significant damage over his last four fights and is likely to be stunned a number of times against Almeida.
For that reason, we have to favor the betting favorite in Cesar Almeida during this matchup simply for his knack at finding the knockout win. Expect this fight to be a quick finish as Almeida continues growing his stock at UFC 307.
Final Cesar Almeida-Ihor Potieria Prediction & Pick: Cesar Almeida (-425); UNDER 1.5 Rounds (-140)
The post Cesar Almeida vs. Ihor Potieria prediction, odds, pick for UFC 307 appeared first on ClutchPoints.
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