NFL Week 1 Odds Feature Tight Slate Of Point Spreads
NFL betting is back, and it is shaping up to be one of the tightest Week 1 slates in recent memory.
NFL sportsbooks have avoided listing any team as a double-digit favorite, a trend not seen in Week 1 since 2019. Only one game has a spread of seven or more points, and if that holds, it would be the fewest to open the season since 2010.
From the defending champion Chiefs’ three-point edge over the Ravens to the narrow lines on matchups like Packers-Eagles, bettors are eyeing quality underdogs and playing to the recent trend toward unders, even as higher totals account for new kickoff rules.
In this breakdown, we’ll dive into the opening lines, spreads, and totals for Week 1, with key insight from the folks who set the lines to help you navigate every game.
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NFL Week 1 odds: Spreads, moneylines, totals
Odds on every NFL game for Week 1 are below. Scroll further down for a comprehensive breakdown of each matchup, and check out this DraftKings Week 1 NFL promo offer to start up your bankroll.
NFL Week 1 odds tracker
MatchupCurrent SpreadSept. 4 SpreadSept. 3 SpreadSept. 2 SpreadOpening SpreadBaltimore Ravens at Kansas City ChiefsChiefs Chiefs -3Chiefs -3Chiefs -3Chiefs -3Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia EaglesEagles Eagles -2.5Eagles -2.5Eagles -2.5Eagles -1.5Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami DolphinsDolphins Dolphins -3Dolphins -3Dolphins -3Dolphins -3.5Carolina Panthers at New Orleans SaintsSaints Saints -4Saints -4Saints -4Saints -4.5Minnesota Vikings at New York GiantsVikings Vikings -1.5Vikings -1.5Vikings -1Giants -1Tennessee Titans at Chicago BearsBears Bears -4Bears -4Bears -4.5Bears -4.5New England Patriots at Cincinnati BengalsBengals Bengals -8.5Bengals -8.5Bengals -8.5Bengals -8.5Houston Texans at Indianapolis ColtsTexans Texans -2.5Texans -2.5Texans -2.5Texans -1.5Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo BillsBills Bills -5.5Bills -5.5Bills -5.5Bills -7Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta FalconsFalcons Falcons -3Falcons -3Falcons -3Falcons -2.5Denver Broncos at Seattle SeahawksSeahawks Seahawks -5.5Seahawks -5.5Seahawks -5.5Seahawks -4.5Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles ChargersChargers Chargers -3Chargers -3Chargers -3Chargers -3Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay BuccaneersBuccaneers Buccaneers -3Buccaneers -3Buccaneers -3Buccaneers -3.5Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland BrownsBrowns Browns -2.5Browns -2.5Browns -2.5Browns -1Los Angeles Rams at Detroit LionsLions Lions -3.5Lions -3.5Lions -3.5Lions -3New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers49ers 49ers -449ers -449ers -3.549ers -5.5
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NFL Week 1 trends, analysis, and movement
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs
Opening spread: Ravens +3, Chiefs -3
Opening moneyline: Ravens +124, Chiefs -146
Opening total: 47
The line on this game hasn’t moved much, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t attracting big money.
The first Thursday night game is always one of the most heavily bet games of Week 1, and this year’s, a rematch of the AFC championship, is shaping up no different. Both teams enter the season in the top five of public Super Bowl futures betting at most sportsbooks and account for four of the last six league MVPs.
The Ravens have been three-point underdogs to the defending champion Chiefs at most books since they opened their lines in May, though a few books had them at +2.5. Baltimore’s side has drawn the most money of any Week 1 team at BetMGM, while the Chiefs have drawn the most bets. The Ravens are getting 46% of early bets and 57% of handle on the spread at BetMGM.
Hesitant to lower a “key number,” some oddsmakers have slowly increased the vig in Baltimore’s direction as more money rolls in the Ravens’ way.
“There are key numbers that we try to hold more than others. When you’re on a three, you try not to get off of it, so you move the juice,” said DraftKings Director of Sports Operations Johnny Avello. “If we bounce around from two-and-a-half to three and the game ends on a three, we end up giving money back to the three bettors and paying out the two-and-a-half.”
According to Avello, roughly one in every seven games in the NFL ends within three points.
The Ravens +125 have the most bets of any underdog to win outright this week at BetMGM.
“These are the two best teams in the AFC, if not the NFL. But here you’re getting a plus number with a quality team. You notice that pattern a lot on NFL games every week. Our user base loves to bet the dog on the moneyline, especially if they’re getting a good team,” Avello said.
The total is down half a point at most books, though oddsmakers anticipate money coming in on the over closer to game time.
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles
Opening spread: Packers +1, Eagles -1
Opening moneyline: Eagles -120, Packers even
Opening total: 48
The line on Friday night’s Brazil game is moving. The Eagles go into Thursday as 2.5-point favorites against the Packers after opening at 1.5 and climbing as high as three-point favorites at some books Tuesday afternoon.
The Eagles are drawing 61% of early bets and 72% of handle on the spread at BetMGM. The Packers are seeing more money early (53.5%) at ESPN Bet.
Joey Feazel of Caesars Sportsbook sees bettors flocking to the Eagles because of pressure on Philadelphia after its meltdown in last year’s NFC wild card round. The Packers, on the other hand, enter the season after outperforming expectations in their first year without Aaron Rodgers, losing in the divisional round to the NFC champion 49ers by a field goal.
DraftKings anticipates more Eagles money on the side by kickoff, but in a similar manner to the Ravens, it expects significant action on Green Bay, a quality team getting points.
Despite these high-powered offenses, early action is again coming in on the under, which has settled around 49 at most books.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins
Opening spread: Jaguars +3.5, Dolphins -3.5
Opening moneyline: Jaguars +155, Dolphins -175
Opening total: 50.5
The Dolphins are down to -3.5 at most sportsbooks, though some still have them at -3 after they opened at -4 back in May.
Miami is getting the bulk of the handle on the spread at Caesars and DraftKings, which are both seeing bets pour in on the over in correlation. The Dolphins have drawn 77% of bets and 61% of handle to cover at BetMGM, while 69% of bets and 80% of handle is on the over.
“They’re betting the over on this one, which is no surprise with McDaniel and the Dolphins. We’re seeing Dolphins action and the over, which is usually how it goes,” Feazel of Caesars said.
The Dolphins finished the regular season last year as the second-highest scoring team, and totals went over in 60% of the games they covered.
“The Dolphins had a quieter offseason than years past, but I think a lot of bettors remember what happened in the second half of the season with the Jaguars,” Feazel said. “Mid-season, we were on them, but they just couldn’t get it done. I think that’s still fresh on bettors’ minds.”
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
Opening spread: Panthers +4.5, Saints -4.5
Opening moneyline: Panthers +176, Saints -210
Opening total: 39.5
One of the least popular Week 1 games at DraftKings from a volume standpoint, this divisional matchup features two teams with win totals below .500.
The Saints opened at -4 at most books and were bet up to -5 before falling back to -4 at most places, though Caesars still has them at -4.5. At BetMGM, 56% of early bets and 73% of the money is on the Panthers to cover, while 66% of bets and 30% of handle is on the under.
Carolina’s new head coach, Dave Canales, was brought in to develop Bryce Young, who struggled in his first year behind center. Young was only the third quarterback ever to have fewer than 12 passing touchdowns and 10 interceptions or more. Canales is credited with helping journeymen signal callers Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield to career years as an assistant, a narrative Feazel sees bettors buying into with where the action’s going.
“There’s some excitement around Carolina with bringing in Canales, who has really had success at being a quarterback whisperer,” Feazel said. “They’re expecting the same thing for Bryce Young; right now, it’s all Panthers.”
Books seem keen not to move past 4, however, in anticipation of sharp action coming in on the Saints at a lower number, Feazel said.
More bets are coming in on the under, while more money is coming in on the over, which has moved from 39.5 to 41.5 at a few books.
Avello believes that has more to do with the Saints’ offense or the possibility of the game going to overtime than in the Panthers’ ability to score points. Carolina finished last season with 4.11 yards per play, the third-worst of any team in the last 33 years.
Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants
Opening spread: Vikings -1.5, Giants +1.5
Opening moneyline: Vikings -112, Giants -104
Opening total: 40.5
One of the more polarizing games of the week, the Vikings and Giants have seen their line move in several directions.
The Vikings are back to -1 or -1.5, which is where they opened at most sportsbooks, though they were favored by as much as two points at DraftKings on Wednesday night.
“This one has swung back and forth and will probably end in a pick’em,” Feazel of Caesars said. “I don’t think we’ll see a lot of action closer to game time in any particular way because there are so many unknowns.”
He chalked up most of the movement to uncertainty regarding Vikings rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who suffered a torn meniscus in August. After it was announced that he would miss the entire season and veteran quarterback Sam Darnold would take the reins, some money has trickled in on the Vikings.
At BetMGM, 70% of early bets and 69% of handle is on Minnesota to cover. The Giants are expected to draw in action closer to game time because “New York money will come in but at lower action,” Feazel said, noting the fanbase’s waning confidence in the team.
Giants games are 24-8-1 to the under since 2020, and this is one of the most popular under games of the week. At BetMGM, 72% of early bets and 75% of handles are on the under, though books are anticipating movement toward the over by kickoff.
“Offensive production’s been down for the Giants, but a lot of that trend has to do with having the right guys on the field,” Avello said. “They’ve added a stud receiver in the draft to give [Daniel] Jones some weapons, so we’ll have to see. I think one of these teams might have an OK season, but they’re not very far apart right now.”
Despite sharing low expectations, a decisive win in one direction probably won’t impact next week’s betting lines much, Avello added, as the Vikings are home against the Super Bowl-contending 49ers next week, and the Giants play their division rivals the Commanders on the road.
Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears
Opening spread: Titans +4.5, Bears -4.5
Opening moneyline: Titans +190, Bears -230
Opening total: 42.5
Bears rookie Caleb Williams would be only the third quarterback taken No. 1 overall to start his first NFL game as a 4.5-point favorite or higher, joining Trevor Lawrence and Terry Bradshaw.
Both Lawrence and Bradshaw lost their first games straight up.
There has not been much movement on the spread so far, with the Titans getting 4 or 4.5 points at most books since lines opened. At BetMGM, the Titans are drawing 54% of early spread bets and 47% of the handle.
“There are going to be some upsets in Week 1, and this could be one of those games,” Avello said. “The Bears were undefeated in the preseason, but not everyone played their players. The Titans, from top to bottom, are not a bad football team. You’ve got to be a little bit careful with laying this number [of points].”
Getting 4.5 points against a rookie is always juicy, Feazel added.
The total’s moved up 3 or 3.5 points at most books, and it’s BetMGM’s second-most bet over by total bets for the week. As of Wednesday night, 62% of bets and 75% of handle is on the over.
“Both these teams, they’re gonna be passing teams,” Feazel said. “The Bears got their franchise guy, who improvises kinda like [Patrick] Mahomes and brought in two excellent receivers for an air raid offense. The Titans are gonna be a passing team as well. Derrick Henry is gone, they’ve brought in weapons too, with the addition of Calvin Ridley.”
Williams enters Week 1 at 40-1 to win MVP, the shortest MVP odds of any rookie to start the season in the last 15 years.
New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals
Opening spread: Patriots +7.5, Bengals -7.5
Opening moneyline: Patriots +310, Bengals -420
Opening total: 43
The Bengals are up to 8.5-point favorites at Caesars and were as high as 9.5 a week ago, even with the uncertainty around All-Pro wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who missed practices amid contract demands. Chase is now reportedly a full go for Week 1, and the Bengals are getting 67% of bets and 85% of money on the spread at BetMGM.
It’s the largest spread of the week so far, making the Patriots the biggest underdogs amid a historically tight slate.
“I don’t think there’s any love for the Patriots at all this year. This will be the number one survivor bet; if the Bengals lose, it will knock out a ton of teams,” said Avello of DraftKings.
This marks the first time in 24 years the Patriots have opened as underdogs three seasons in a row.
They have the lowest win total of any team (4.5) at most sportsbooks and have drawn the most money of any team to go under their win total at BetMGM. They finished last season tied for the fewest points per game. While it resulted in the third overall pick, rookie quarterback Drake Maye has been named the backup behind Jacoby Brissett, whom New England signed to a one-year minimum contract in the offseason.
It’s one of the most popular unders of the week, and the total is down to 40.5 at several books. The under has drawn 68% of early bets and 76% of handle at BetMGM.
“It’s all about the under, which is a sentiment about the Patriots’ offense not being impressive since Brady left,” Feazel said.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Opening spread: Texans -1.5, Colts +1.5
Opening moneyline: Texans -120, Colts +102
Opening total: 47.5
The Texans have been one of the most popular teams all week and are up to -2.5 or -3 at most books within the past few days. This is Houston’s first opening game as a favorite since 2017.
After leading Houston to a surprise run to the divisional round last year, reigning offensive rookie of the year, C.J. Stroud has become the darling among the NFL betting community. Stroud is the most popular MVP choice at FanDuel by both bet count (12%) and handle (12%). The Texans are +1600 to win the Super Bowl after opening the previous season at +20000, one of the biggest season-to-season Super Bowl odds swings in NFL history.
The Texans are drawing 78% of early bets and 81% of handle on the spread at BetMGM. Big money is on Houston as well, as one bettor placed $135,000 on the Texans -2.5 at Caesars.
The total is more split, but again trending toward the under with 68% of bets and 76% of handle on the under.
Oddsmakers view the Texans as a complete team and see few holes in their roster after adding Pro Bowlers Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon to an already deep offensive unit, Avello of DraftKings pointed out.
Conversely, question marks surround Indianapolis at the quarterback position, which is nothing new.
If Anthony Richardson starts on Sunday, it will mark the first time in eight years the Colts quarterback has started in consecutive seasons. Richardson tantalized early last year but is coming off a shoulder injury that kept him out for the final 12 games of last season.
“This really all comes down to Anthony Richardson, but he hasn’t looked like he has that same spark in preseason,” Feazel said.
Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills
Opening spread: Cardinals +7, Bills -7
Opening moneyline: Cardinals +280, Bills -350
Opening total: 47.5
The Bills were the most popular public team against the spread last year, garnering the highest percentage of tickets on the most regular season games at BetMGM. Despite question marks regarding their offense after Stefon Diggs’ departure, Buffalo likely enters Sunday as the second-biggest favorite of the week, behind the Bengals.
However, betting is not as lopsided on this matchup. The bills have 59% of early bets to cover the spread but only 39% of handle, at BetMGM.
The Bills have settled at -6.5 at most books and were as low as -5.5 last week. Caesars took sharp action on that 5.5 earlier but has seen smaller bets pouring in on Arizona throughout the week
“We’re usually going to need whoever is playing the bills and the under,” Feazel said.
The Bills are shaping up to be this week’s most popular teaser team at DraftKings, Avello said, adding that he expects good action both ways by kickoff.
The total has moved half a point to 48.5 at most books, with 59% of early bets and 71% of handle on the over at BetMGM.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons
Opening spread: Steelers +2, Falcons -2
Opening moneyline: Steelers +138, Falcons -164
Opening total: 45.5
There may be more question marks between these two teams than any other Week 1 matchup. Both teams enter the season with an entirely new quarterback room and new offensive play callers as they look to transcend last year’s middle-of-the-pack play.
The Falcons are -3.5 at most books and have been since last week. They were -3 at most places for much of August.
The Falcons are drawing 61% of early bets on the spread and 67% of handle at BetMGM. They have been getting most of the action at Caesars since this line opened in May.
DraftKings has seen more sharp money on Pittsburgh since moving the line to 3.5, Avello said.
The total is down to 41 in a few places, 4.5 points off of its opening line, one of the steepest drops of the week. It’s the second most-bet under game of the week at BetMGM by total bets. So far, 80% of early bets and 63% of handle is on the under.
Unlike most games with action coming in on the under so far, oddsmakers don’t anticipate a particularly strong push toward the over ahead of kickoff.
“You have two new quarterbacks who we really didn’t see much of in preseason in new offenses. Both teams usually have a tight defense, and both teams like to run the ball,” Avello said.
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks
Opening spread: Broncos +4.5, Seahawks -4.5
Opening moneyline: Broncos +172 Seahawks -205
Opening total: 42.5
A lot of action is coming in on the Seahawks, who have moved 2.5 points to -6 at most books, though some have them at -5.5.
The Seahawks have drawn 39% of early bets on the spread and 58% of handle at BetMGM.
“Bettors seem to have no faith in the Broncos early on in the season,” Avello said. “Things aren’t so stable in Seattle either, so the fact that they’re six-point favorite really tells you we don’t have a lot of faith in Denver from the start.”
Both teams missed the playoffs last year and finished around the .500 mark. The Broncos will start rookie quarterback Bo Nix, from Russell Wilson, who is survived in Seattle by Geno Smith. Rookie quarterbacks on the road are 8-19 straight up in Week 1 since the NFL merger.
Caesars is seeing what oddsmakers sometimes call a “super middle” on this game. They need the Seahawks to win the game because of how many moneyline bets they’re taking on the Broncos (+205), but for the Broncos to cover because of heavy action on the Seahawks spread.
Action’s been less dramatic on the total, which is around 41.5, just half a point below where it opened at most books. Caesars and DraftKings both anticipate more action toward the over closer to kickoff.
The under is getting 62% of early bets and 78% of handle at BetMGM.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Opening spread: Raiders +3, Chargers -3
Opening moneyline: Raiders +130, Chargers -154
Opening total: 42.5
The Chargers are back to -3 at most books after briefly jumping to -4.5 between weeks 2 and 3 of the preseason.
Betting is relatively split so far, with the Raiders drawing 58% of early bets on the spread and 53% of handle at BetMGM.
“We’re seeing a solid three on this game. It’s the right number, it shows they’re pretty even if they play on a neutral field.”
Star Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert returns after missing the final four games of last season, in which his team finished with five wins en route to firing their second coach in three years. The highly sought-after Jim Harbaugh will look to revamp a team that holds the longest active streak of finishing under its season win total (five), though questions remain about their personnel.
“We know Harbaugh wants to run the ball, but we don’t know if he has the weapons to do so,” Feazel of Caesars said.
The Raiders have their own set of uncertainties. Gardner Minshew will start at quarterback for his fourth team in as many years. He is 6-18 straight up as an underdog. while the Raiders are tied for the fourth-lowest win total of any team (6.5) at BetMGM.
Another “super middle” situation, Caesars needs the Chargers to win (or tie) but for the Raiders to cover.
The total is down to 40 or 40.5 at most books, which are seeing lopsided action to the under.
A whopping 87% of early bets and 95% of handle is on the under at BetMGM.
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opening spread: Commanders
Opening moneyline: Commanders +164, Buccaneers -196
Opening total: 40.5
The Buccaneers have fluctuated between -3 and -3.5 throughout most of the preseason, after opening at -4.5. They are back up to -3.5 at most major sportsbooks.
No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels will make his debut at quarterback for the Commanders, marking the team’s eighth straight season with a different Week 1 signal caller, an NFL-high. Rookie quarterbacks on the road are 8-19 straight up in Week 1 since the NFL merger.
“This line goes to show you that the Buccaneers are not an upper echelon team, to be only three points over a Commanders team with a brand new QB,” Avello of DraftKings said.
The Commanders are drawing 61% of early bets on the spread and 72% of handle at BetMGM. Caesars and DraftKings report similar figures. Fresh off signing a three-year, $100-million contract, this will be quarterback Baker Mayfield’s second consecutive season starting for the Buccaneers and his first season in Tampa without Canales.
Avello and Feazel expect it to be one of the less popular games to bet on as it shares a window with several other intriguing matchups.
The total is up to 43.5, a sharp jump in the direction of points. The over is drawing 86% of early bets and 95% of handle at BetMGM, one of the few games so far with such decisive action on the total.
Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns
Opening spread: Cowboys -1.5, Browns +1.5
Opening moneyline: Cowboys -118, Browns -100
Opening total: 44.5
This game has seen the most whipsawing line movement of any Week 1 spread. The Cowboys head into the weekend as +2.5 underdogs at every sportsbook after opening as -1.5 favorites in May.
“We’re seeing some Browns money on the side, but that won’t keep the general public from flocking to the Cowboys moneyline ahead of the late 4 p.m. game,” Avello said, anticipating the betting tax the Cowboys typically see from their large fanbase.
There’s not a lot of action on either side at Caesars, but “the Cowboys faithful will show up like they always do,” Feazel said.
The Browns have 47% of early bets on the spread and 64% of handle at BetMGM.
The total is drawing much more action one way. The line, 41.5, is down three points from where most books opened it, and it is the most popular game to bet under at BetMGM. A whopping 91% of early bets and 89% of handle is on the over at BetMGM.
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions
Opening spread: Rams +3, Lions -3
Opening moneyline: Rams +138, Lions -164
Opening total: 52.5
The Rams face the Lions in the first Sunday Night Football game of the season, a rematch of last year’s wild-card round, steeped in history between two quarterbacks who were traded for each other.
The line has remained steady since opening, with the Lions holding at -3.5 at most books. Detroit has drawn 66% of early bets on the spread and 56% of the handle at BetMGM.
The total is down to 51 at most books, though it is still the highest of the week. The under is drawing 58% of early bets and 43% of handle at BetMGM, though bookmakers expect action to settle in toward the over by Sunday night.
DraftKings expects around 80% to 85% of bets on the over but is cautious about moving past the key number of 51.5 without a substantial influx of new money. Caesars also foresees a balanced split but doesn’t expect the total to exceed 52.
Last season, the Lions fell just short of their first Super Bowl appearance, losing a close game to the San Francisco 49ers in the playoffs. Detroit finished with a strong 14-6 against the spread, the best in the league. Meanwhile, the Rams also had a notable season, finishing 10-8 and 11-6-1 ATS, though they were eliminated by the Lions in the playoffs.
As the first SNF game kicks off, expect continued action and discussion around both teams, particularly given their recent histories and current standings in the NFL.
New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers
Opening spread: Jets +5, 49ers -5
Opening moneyline: Jets +180, 49ers -218
Opening total: 46.5
The New York Jets are set to face the San Francisco 49ers in a highly anticipated Monday Night Football matchup, marking Aaron Rodgers’ official return after a season-ending injury last year. Only the Ravens-Chiefs Thursday night opener has drawn more betting interest.
The 49ers opened as five-point favorites but have since dropped to -4. The Jets are drawing 56% of early bets on the spread and 61% of handle, at BetMGM.
The under is also receiving substantial action, with 76% of early bets and 85% of early handle on that side and has moved from 46.5 to 42.5 at most books.
“Jets fans have high hopes this season, and that’s reflected in the betting,” Avello of DraftKings said. “We’ve seen the line move from -5.5 to -4.5 even after San Francisco locked in key players like Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams. A lot of the movement is simply due to the Jets’ large following and their belief that Rodgers can still be the guy to lead them.”
Avello noted the potential risk if New York pulls off an upset. “If the Jets win outright, it’s not good for us. But that’s what a lot of bettors are expecting taking the moneyline, betting that Rodgers plays like the Rodgers of old.”
Last year’s campaign was derailed almost instantly when Rodgers tore his Achilles on his first offensive series as a Jet. The team finished 7-10 without him, but with Rodgers back, expectations are sky-high for New York.
Caesars Sportsbook has also seen considerable movement in the line.
“We opened at -6, dropped to -3.5, and now we’re heading back towards 4.5,” Feazel said. “There’s been a lot of movement on both sides. It’s a tricky one to gauge with the line hovering around key numbers like 4.5 and 5.”
The post NFL Week 1 Odds Feature Tight Slate Of Point Spreads appeared first on Legal Sports Report.
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