Carlos Alcaraz vs Li Tu US Open prediction, odds, pick – 8/27/2024
Carlos Alcaraz takes on Li Tu. Our US Open odds series has our Alcaraz Tu prediction, odds, and pick. Find out how to watch Alcaraz Tu.
Carlos Alcaraz, one week ago, was the betting-market favorite for the U.S. Open. He did lose to Novak Djokovic at the Olympics, but remember: That was best of three sets, not best of five. At Wimbledon, Alcaraz trounced Djokovic in straight sets in a best-of-five-set final. That’s why he should be favored in New York. However, during practice this past week in New York, Alcaraz rolled his ankle. It turned out that the incident was not serious, and that an injury scare had been averted. However, even something as small as that can play on the mind of an athlete. Alcaraz could be just a little more cautious than he otherwise would have been. He might be half a step slower. He might be a little less decisive. He might play it safe just a bit more. He might try to end rallies a little quicker, too. Do we know for sure if Alcaraz won’t be affected at all by that ankle roll? It shouldn’t matter in terms of whether he beats Li Tu in the first round, but it certainly could affect the betting calculus and the props involved. Let’s dive into this below:
Here are the Alcaraz-Tu U.S. Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
U.S. Open Odds: Carlos Alcaraz-Li Tu
Game Spread:
Alcaraz -10.5: -116
Tu +10.5: -116
Moneyline:
Alcaraz -10000
Tu +2800
To Win First Set:
Alcaraz -1800
Tu +1080
Total Games In Match:
Over 26.5: -108
Under 26.5: -126
Total Games Won:
Alcaraz over 18.5: +128
Alcaraz under 18.5: -174
Tu over 8.5: +104
Tu under 8.5: -138
How to Watch U.S. Open
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET/4:15 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN, ESPN Plus
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Why Carlos Alcaraz Will Win
Alcaraz is better than Tu by a very, very large margin. A 10.5-game spread means that for Alcaraz to cover, he will need at least two sets in which in which he wins by four games — 6-2 — and another set in which he wins by at least three games (6-3). Is that a standard he is likely to reach? If you think the talent gap is as large as we think it is, that won’t be a problem. In fact, Alcaraz can probably win at least one set by a 6-1 margin. He will win all three sets by at least three games, so his floor in this match is already high. Alcaraz winning at least one set 6-2 seems like a safe bet. The question is whether he can win two such sets versus Tu. If you think about it for a minute, this very large spread isn’t actually all that daunting. This is a blowout on paper.
Why Li Tu Will Win
The Alcaraz ankle roll in practice could make Carlos a little hesitant, enough for Tu to win three games in at least two sets. If Tu does that, he would have to lose a third set 6-1 or 6-0 to not cover the 10.5-game spread. The margins would shrink and Alcaraz might not cover.
Consider the point that Alcaraz will try to play a low-energy match here. He knows he will win. He won’t try to play with maximum intensity, making sure he is injury-free and not overextended. He can still win in straight sets and finish the match in under two hours, but he might give up two or three more games than he would have if the ankle roll never occurred.
Final Carlos Alcaraz-Li Tu Prediction & Pick
The Alcaraz ankle roll puts this betting situation into an uncertain state, so we recommend passing on the spread bet. However, the one obvious play here is Alcaraz under 18.5 games. The price isn’t great, but it’s a winning ticket. It’s really hard to see Alcaraz needing seven games to win a set. He should need only 18 games (six per set) to get this done. You could also go with Tu at under 8.5 games. He would need to win three games in every set to go over that total.
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Final Carlos Alcaraz-Li Tu Prediction & Pick: Alcaraz under 18.5 games, Tu under 8.5 games
The post Carlos Alcaraz vs Li Tu US Open prediction, odds, pick – 8/27/2024 appeared first on ClutchPoints.
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