5 Overvalued Fantasy Football Quarterbacks Based On 2024 ADP
Every year, there are NFL fantasy football busts at the quarterback position. And some quarterbacks will outperform expectations. But here are five guys who are overvalued based on 2024 average draft position.
At the head of the class is the player who leads the way at ADP. Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen will not finish as QB1 this year. Yes, year in and year out he’s been at the top or near the top. But things will change for him in 2024.
Don’t take Bills Josh Allen as first QB
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
First, keep in mind this is fantasy football. Josh Allen will still put up good numbers. And if the Bills play good defense, they will win their share of games.
However, this is about Allen’s temperament. Allen is built for gunslinging. He’s made to take chances. And if things are there? He’ll try to make a square peg fit into a round hole.
So here’s the fantasy football problem. Things won’t be there for Allen like they have been in the past. Look at that receiver room. Khalil Shakir as a No. 1 dude? Keon Coleman flying high as a rookie? Curtis Samuel slotting in as the No 3 guy. Oh, wow, what a mess.
Sure, Allen can chuck it to Dalton Kincaid. And there will be teams who can’t cover the tight end. So Kincaid will have some field days this season. But there’s only so much a quarterback can produce without great wideouts. It has hindered the best of them, including Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes.
Plus, there’s another issue. Allen chucked it to the other team 18 times last year. And that was with a better receiving group. He might surpass that fantasy-football-point-eating total in 2024.
Also, Allen ran over opponents to the tune of 15 rushing touchdowns in 2023. His previous career high of nine came in 2019. Allen won’t touch 15 rushing scores this year. Teams, unafraid of single coverage against potentially mediocre receivers, will spy Allen inside in the 10-yard line. Every rushing score he gets will have to be earned.
The ups and the downs
If you have Allen on your team, you will likely experience great frustration. He’ll go up against a team and light it up for 30-plus points. And you’ll be like, “He’s back!” And then the next week a good defense will keep him down, and you’ll hate that putrid 15-point effort. Up and down. Two good games, one bad one. That’s not the path to QB1.
Of course, you could always draft Allen and count on Bills head coach Sean McDermott’s rosy outlook, according to Sports Illustrated.
“I’ve noticed a ratcheted-up form of Josh from a leadership standpoint,” McDermott said. “Going back to the spring, just being intentional about working extra with his core receivers, backs, tight ends. Hey, if something’s not right, being proactive in saying ‘Listen, let’s run that again.
“I know Josh has put in a lot of time with (the) new pieces over the offseason, been very intentional about that. I think he’s done a great job of taking ownership with that.”
That paints a picture of a fantasy football quarterback who can thrive in a muted-talent setting. But that’s not been Allen’s nature in his career. Pass him by if you have to go No. 1 to get him.
Colts QB Anthony Richardson too expensive
With a fantasy football ADP of 6.3, according to fantasypros.com, owners have to be extremely confident in Richardson’s ability to be an every-week stat provider. But, on the red flags are many.
Richardson alread has one major injury concern — despite his 6-foot-4, 255-pound size. Big and fast matters in the NFL, but even large men get hurt. That’s one thing. Accuracy is another. Richardson completed only 59.5% of his passes last season in a small sample size. But until he puts together a 65% completion season, it’s not wise to just assume he can do it.
Accuracy matters because there are times Richardson will have to thread the needle to keep a drive alive. Let’s say you’re six points down and it Monday night. You need a touchdown from Richardson. It’s fourth and 10 near midfield and the Colts are out of timeouts. They have to go for it. Richardson is pressured. He has to threat the needle to keep the drive alive. Or you lose. Can he do that? Aaron Rodgers. Yes. Patrick Mahomes. Yes. You get the point.
The plot to stop could affect Richardson’s numbers
Also, NFL defensive coordinators who will face Richardson this season spent the entire offseason finding ways to slow him down and make him uncomfortable. If he’s good enough, it won’t matter much. But if he has an exposable flaw, such as accuracy, they will find it.
But what if he just tucks it under his arm and runs every time he gets in trouble? First, defenders are too fast for that to work all the time. Second, they’re gonna hit him. Hard. Will that big body hold up against an NFL pounding? Maybe this year he can because he’s still young and tough. But for a top-10 quarterback, I want a guy who can throw it.
Richardson said he’s not just a running quarterback, according to nytimes.com. And last year’s injury just happened.
“I don’t think there’s any way I could’ve avoided what happened to me,” Richardson said. “Just a regular, routine tackle. I tried to brace myself for the fall and my shoulder just did what it did. … People see me, I’m a big quarterback, so they always think, ‘He wants to run the ball. He wants to be physical, and that is what’s going to get him hurt.’ That’s not the case.”
What will Texans QB C.J. Stroud do in year two?
C.J. Stroud had a dream fantasy football season for a rookie. His 23-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio can be described as sublime. His 64% completion percentage? Excellent for a rookie.
And his receivers? That’s a nice look with Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell out front. But … slow down a bit. Stroud’s ADP is 5.2. And it’s all based on one season.
Is Stroud a special talent? Yes. He could have another fine year. But should he be drafted before Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, and Dak Prescott? There’s not enough evidence to buy that logic.
Sure, his coach is fired up. DeMeco Ryans said Stroud should continue to improve, according to the Houston Texans YouTube page.
“Where can we see him grow in his second year? It’s his leadership, first and foremost — continue to become the leader that we want him to be,” Ryans said. “And it’s just in his play. It doesn’t change for C.J. or anyone else — can we get a little bit better each day? There’s no big grand thing for him, just continue to get a little bit better. You see how much better he got from his first day of camp last year until our last game — how much better (he got). You saw the growth of him. And that’s the same thing as we come into this season.”
Will defenses look the same to Stroud this year?
Stroud didn’t get the scrutiny of defensive coordinators he will get this year. They will treat him as a top-tier quarterback and won’t take as many chances. They will force him to be efficient. And unless he’s the next great one, his fantasy football numbers will take a hit in 2024.
One other thing, Diggs doesn’t look like the Diggs of years gone by. It’s possible he won’t bring what the Texans expect this year. And that’s one more degree of difficulty Stroud will have to navigate.
Is Falcons QB Kirk Cousins still a fantasy threat?
OK, so you don’t have to spend much draft capital to acquire Cousins. His ADP is 19. But there are two problems. He is coming off a major and very serious injury with the Achilles tear.
Now, Cousins has never been a mobile quarterback. He’s no threat with his legs. But has been able to be mobile within the pocket and occasionally extend some plays. Will that still be there? Or will be a statue?
But here’s the bigger issue with Cousins: Michael Penix Jr. Sure, the Falcons will ride with Cousins as long as things are going well. This will likely be true even if Cousins isn’t lighting the world on fire. All that matters is wins. But … if the Falcons struggle and Cousins isn’t manufacturing points, that’s a problem. Penix is a first-round pick. Falcons’ head coach Raheem Morris would be pressured to play Penix if the Falcons aren’t winning games.
Morris said Penix is in a developmental plan, according to espn.com.
“And it’s been awesome,” Morris said. “I don’t see that varying at all in his developmental plan, even moving into the season. And he’s getting, I don’t know how many reps he’s got versus our starting defense now, but he’s got a huge amount of reps versus our starting defense. And I feel really good about where he’s going and what he’s going to develop.”
The good news is if you draft Cousins, Penix probably will go undrafted and you could cut your losses. However, don’t be late to the fantasy football waiver-wire party if Cousins gets benched during the middle of a week.
Will QB Russell Wilson have a short leash?
Wilson’s ADP is where it should be, way down low at 25.3. The funny thing is, Justin Fields sits at 26.8. In other words, you must pick which player to grab in the late rounds of a draft. And if you get the wrong one, the other guys might slip away on the waiver wire.
Obviously Mike Tomlin went with experience by choosing Wilson as his starter, according to steelers.com.
“Russ’ resume is a unique one in terms of length and success,” Tomlin said. “That tends to play a factor in (decision making), but not from a decision-making perspective. It’s just the fruits of his labor. He’s seen and done a lot, and I think that was displayed in the way he played and conducted himself. He’s got a legitimate deep ball, not only in terms of arm strength, but in terms of accuracy. We’ve got some guys that are capable of getting down the field in a lot of ways. So, we’re excited about that.”
But Tomlin also termed it a “difficult decision,” according to ESPN reporter Brooke Pryor. That can be translated as a short leash.
One way of looking at it is trying to hit a home run. If Wilson stays as quarterback, the Steelers will win games and Wilson’s numbers won’t be all that great. But if Fields takes over as quarterback, his fantasy football numbers — win or lose — could be off the charts. So Fields is the wise pick while Wilson is overvalued according to his ADP.
The post 5 Overvalued Fantasy Football Quarterbacks Based On 2024 ADP appeared first on ClutchPoints.
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