Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena prediction, odds, pick for UFC 307
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. continues to roll as we’re ready for another betting prediction and pick for this Co-Main Event Championship bout. The UFC Women’s Bantamweight belt is on the line as Champion Raquel Pennington takes on No. 1 Julianna Pena in a grudge match for the ages. Check out our UFC odds series for our Pennington-Pena prediction and pick.
Raquel Pennington (16-8) has gone 13-5 since 2013 en route to becoming UFC Champion. After a five-fight winning streak, she securing the vacant Bantamweight belt over Mayra Bueno Silva in a five-round unanimous decision. Now, she’ll look to make her first title defense against a rival as the betting favorite. Pennington stands 5’7″ with a 67.5-inch reach.
Julianna Pena (10-5) has gone 7-3 in the UFC since 2013 en route to earning former champion status. Since her monumental upset over GOAT Amanda Nunes, Pena relinquished the belt during the rematch and hasn’t fought since 2022. Now, she’ll have a chance to recapture her gold once again. Pena stands 5’6″ with a 69-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 307 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 307 Odds: Raquel Pennington-Julianna Pena Odds
Raquel Pennington: -170
Julianna Pena: +142
Over 4.5 rounds: -270
Under 4.5 rounds: +200
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Why Raquel Pennington Will Win
Raquel Pennington looked like the best version of herself in beating Mayra Bueno Silva back at UFC 297. She remained consistent on the feet and showed off world-class boxing skills against a dangerous opponent. Pennington was also able to keep the fight where she’s most comfortable and engage on her own terms, eventually leading to a five-round domination on the feet against Silva. If she’s able to find a home in her jab and rely on her boxing once again, she should be able to retain her belt.
Raquel Pennington is the rightful favorite here with her newfound confidence as champion and with this matchup holding some bad blood, Pennington will have the added motivation to cement her title with this win. Her takedown and grappling defense will have to be sharp if she wants to deter Pena from shooting the takedown, so expect Pennington to let her opponent make the first move before settling into her own rhythm.
Why Julianna Pena Will Win
Julianna Pena has had over two years to prepare both her mind and body for this opportunity, so we should expect to see the best version of her ahead of this one. This seems like a legacy for Pena as she’ll look to prove herself as the rightful champion in getting her belt back. She has a very supportive camp behind her in Luiz Claudio’s Combat Team, so she’ll be dialed-in considered the “friends turned foes” rivalry at stake here. Pena’s striking has improved massively over her last few fights, so expect her to fully welcome a kickboxing match against her opponent.
Julianna Pena will also have world-class jiu jitsu skills in her back pocket, immediately shifting the momentum in her favor if she can find favorable position on the ground. Raquel Pennington has been known to work the ground-and-pound and winning control time, so Pena will have to work with a constant sense of urgency to come up with the win here.
Final Raquel Pennington-Julianna Pena Prediction & Pick
Both women share a long-storied rivalry and this championship fight will certainly have some bad blood behind it. Raquel Pennington is coming off a championship win in which her boxing looked the best it ever has. Julianna Pena has been sidelined since 2022, but she’s finally ready to exact revenge and earn her title back.
Raquel Pennington will look to make this a war of attrition through five rounds for Pena. With such a long layoff and this fight taking place at elevation, Pennington will hope to use her output to her advantage and tire Pena in the later rounds of the fight.
Pena, however, seems to be in very good shape ahead of this fight and we know how crisp her own boxing has looked in recent fights. As long as she’s able to avoid the constant jab of Pennington and work her way towards a takedown, we could see Pena swing momentum in her favor after the first or second round.
For our final prediction, we’ll side with the underdog in Julianna Pena to get the win. She’s a very clean boxer and has the chin to withstand Pennington’s shots. Avoiding the jab will be the biggest key, but I suspect Pena and her corner will make adjustments quickly, taking this fight to the mat where she can work her submission attempts.
Final Raquel Pennington-Julianna Pena Odds, Prediction & Pick: Julianna Pena (+142)
The post Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena prediction, odds, pick for UFC 307 appeared first on ClutchPoints.
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