Twins vs. Guardians prediction, odds, pick – 9/16/2024
The Minnesota Twins will begin a major four-game series with the Cleveland Guardians on Monday at Progressive Field. It’s an American League Central showdown as we share our MLB odds series and begin a Twins-Guardians prediction and pick.
Twins-Guardians Projected Starters
Pablo Lopez vs. Matthew Boyd
Pablo Lopez (15-8) with a 3.88 ERA
Last Start: Lopez was solid in his last outing, going seven innings in his last outing, allowing four runs, none earned, on eight hits while striking out 10 in a win over the Los Angeles Angels.
2024 Road Splits: Lopez has been slightly worse on the road, going 8-4 with a 4.11 ERA over 15 starts on the road.
Matthew Boyd (2-1) with a 2.18 ERA
Last Start: Boyd was off in his last outing, going 4 1/3 innings, allowing four runs, one earned, and six hits while striking out nine and walking two in a no-decision against the Chicago White Sox.
2024 Home Splits: Boyd has gone 1-1 with a 1.56 ERA over three starts at home this season.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Twins-Guardians Odds
Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+150)
Moneyline: -112
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-182)
Moneyline: 1-4)
Over: 7.5 (-118)
Under: 7.5 (-104)
How to Watch Twins vs. Guardians
Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40 PM PT
TV: Bally Sports Great Lakes and Bally Sports North
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Twins Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Twins are clinging to the final wildcard spot in the AL. However, there is still a chance to gain ground if they can gain some wins over the Guardians. They have two hitters who can make some ground.
Willi Castro has been solid all season, leading the Twins in hits. Additionally, he is batting .280 with 23 hits, two home runs, six RBIs, and 14 runs over 25 games against the Guardians. Carlos Santana leads the Twins in home runs. Yet, he has struggled against the Guardians, hitting just .138 with 20 hits, three home runs, seven RBIs, and 13 runs over 42 games against them in his career.
Lopez has had moderate success against the Guardians, going 2-2 with a 3.64 ERA in five starts. Ultimately, he must make good pitches to overcome the Guardians. When Lopez finishes his outing, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is 22nd in team ERA. Jhoan Duran is the closer and comes in with a record of 6-9, a 4.10 ERA, and 23 saves in 25 chances.
The Twins will cover the spread if they can cobble together some hits and make life as difficult for the Guardians as possible. Then, they need Lopez to pitch well and avoid making mistakes so the Twins can snag the first game.
Why The Guardians Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Guardians have played well all season. Amazingly, they have kept pace with the New York Yankees for the best record in the AL. The Guardians still have a lot to play for. Significantly, if they can finish their season strong, they can take the top seed in the AL and claim home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Cleveland has the hitters to get the job done, and two of them have specifically played a good role this season and against the Twins.
Steven Kwan is the leadoff hitter. However, he has struggled against the Twins. Kwan is batting only .143 with three hits, one home run, two RBIs, and two runs over his last five games against the Twins. Also, he is hitting just .273 with 12 hits, one home run, four RBIs, and three runs over 10 games overall against them.
Jose Ramirez is an essential player on this squad. Yet, he has some work to do if he is to guide the Guardians to the promised land. Ramirez is batting .271 with 172 hits, 24 home runs, 79 RBIs, and 92 runs over 165 career showdowns with the Twins. Yet, he is hitting only .233 with three home runs, six RBIs, and four runs over his last 10 battles with them.
Boyd has gone 9-8 with a 4.62 ERA over 23 games against the Twins. Also, he has gone 4-5 with a 5.40 ERA over his last 10 against them. When Boyd completes his outing, he will turn it over to the best bullpen in baseball. Emmanuel Chase is the best stopper in the game and is 4-2 with a 0.67 ERA with 44 saves in 47 chances.
The Guardians will cover the spread if Kwan and Ramirez can clobber the baseball and create some long innings. Then, they need Boyd to make some good pitches.
Final Twins-Guardians Prediction & Pick
The Guardians lead the head-to-head series 7-2 and 5-4 against the run line against them. Also, they are 3-0 against the Twins at home. The Twins are 67-82 against the run line, while the Guardians are 77-73. Additionally, the Twins are 35-39 against the run line on the road, while the Guardians are 35-37 at home. It seems easier to trust Lopez in this one than Boyd, who has stumbled often against the Twins. Therefore, we expect the Twins to find a way to cover the spread in this one on the road and make it a competitive game.
Final Twins-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+150)
The post Twins vs. Guardians prediction, odds, pick – 9/16/2024 appeared first on ClutchPoints.
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