Miami vs. Florida prediction, odds, pick for College Football Week 1
Billy Napier enters a pivotal season at Florida as his Gators open the 2024 season against in-state rival Miami at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. We continue our college football odds series with a Miami-Florida prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Napier’s 11-15 record in his first two years in Gainesville isn’t inspiring a lot of confidence in the program regaining its stature as a national power, and it could be a chore to break through this season with what many expect to be the nation’s toughest schedule. Florida has preseason top 25 teams on tap, but Napier does have the talent to compete.
Meanwhile, Mario Cristobal is also in search of bringing “The U” back to its glory days, with Miami looking to turn a 7-6 record in 2023 into something more this season thanks to the arrival of several key transfers.
Here are the College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Miami-Florida Odds
Miami: -2.5 (-115)
Moneyline: -140
Florida: +2.5 (-105)
Moneyline: +116
Over: 54.5 (-110)
Under: 54.5 (-110)
How to Watch Miami vs. Florida
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET/12:30 p.m. PT
TV: ABC
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why Miami Will Cover The Spread/Win
Miami’s offense could be special.
Former Washington State quarterback Cameron Ward is the catalyst. He threw for 3,735 yards and 25 touchdowns and added eight rushing scores. Running back Damian Martinez joins from Oregon State, where he had 194 carries, 1,185 yards, and nine touchdowns. Miami’s wide receivers have big-play ability, as showcased by their top two returners. Xavier Restrepo had 85 receptions for 1,092 yards and six touchdowns, while Jacolby George posted 57 receptions for 864 yards and eight touchdowns, including a long of 85 yards.
The offensive line is another huge plus, despite having to replace two NFL-bound talents in center Matt Lee and guard Javion Cohen. There’s plenty of physicality up front on this roster, and it should be one of the better groups in the country.
If offense isn’t your thing, then the Hurricanes’s defensive line is what you’re looking for. Several impact transfers join the mix, and this is a unit that should generate pressure against even the best offensive lines.
Simply put, this is a roster that can get Miami back to double-digit wins for the first time since 2017.
Why Florida Will Cover The Spread/Win
What about Florida’s offense?
Well, Graham Mertz is back and he gets to face a secondary with only one returning starter and three projected starters with sub-65.5 overall grades (per PFF). Mertz’s efficiency was something else, and even without San Francisco 49ers first-round draft pick Ricky Pearsall Jr. at his disposal, the four top pass catchers behind him return.
The bigger story might be the status of Montrell Johnson Jr. (152 CARs, 817 YDs, 5 TDs), who had been considered week to week after minor knee surgery in early August. However, Napier announced this week that Johnson will play without limitation.
Don’t forget, the Gators also signed DJ Lagway, the top-ranked quarterback and No. 3 overall player in the 2024 recruiting class. He won’t start ahead of Mertz, but it won’t be a surprise if Florida uses him in certain offensive packages.
But perhaps most importantly, the reason Florida can win is because it should be better in all three phases on defense. They’re huge up front – everyone knows about 6-5, 449-pound phenom Desmond Watson – and winning starts there. Shemar James (55 total tackles, 1 sack) is a stud at linebacker. Transfers add depth in the secondary, which is a much-needed asset against Heisman-worthy SEC quarterbacks.
Here’s what it could come down to: Napier’s job might depend on this one game. It sounds dramatic, but it’s true.
Florida’s schedule may be the toughest in college football history, and though that sounds dramatic as well, it may also be true. The Gators have to take advantage of their games in Gainesville, and this is an opportunity to make the most of their three-game homestand to start the season.
Napier knows it, and his team knows it. Can they capitalize?
Final Miami-Florida Prediction & Pick
It’s impossible to like this line at the current number.
Florida is talented enough to exceed expectations, but there are obvious issues with trusting this team after Napier’s first two seasons. The Gators have stepped up big in hyped-up home games before. Will they do it again?
Maybe, but this is the team Cristobal has been waiting for in South Beach. There are playmakers across the board, and on paper, this squad seems to be capable of a run at the College Football Playoff.
If the spread moves from 2.5 to 3 (which seems likely), the Gators have value in getting a field goal. As it stands, unless you’re convinced Florida is winning, the visiting team is the better play.
The Hurricanes get the nod.
Final Miami-Florida Prediction & Pick: Miami -2.5 (-115)
The post Miami vs. Florida prediction, odds, pick for College Football Week 1 appeared first on ClutchPoints.
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