Will Auburn football go over or under projected 7.5 wins?
AUBURN — There was recently a college football podcast in which a discussion occurred and a question was asked about Auburn football coach Hugh Freeze. The question was, could Freeze be on the hot seat after only his second season?
That seems like an irrational discussion to have, even given the recent history of Auburn’s ability to churn through head coaches with the best of them.
Freeze has the backing of the administration and the booster community. That alignment hasn’t always happened in the past. In fact, it’s rarely happened at the level it’s happening as of this moment. There is an aligned belief in what needs to happen NIL wise, facilities wise, and there seems to be an understanding that with an expanding SEC and shifting college football landscape, truly committing to stability with Freeze is the prudent move. Being trigger happy isn’t the prudent move at all.
Having said that, Year Two is always critical in a program’s ascent. Freeze said as much when he was first hired. He knew the first three recruiting classes, along with the the first three seasons on the field, were important to building culture and confidence that things are headed in the right direction.
During recent interviews at various golf tournaments and speaking engagements, Freeze acknowledged this Auburn team should be better than last year. Will that produce more regular season wins? That remains to be seen.
Remember, Auburn hasn’t beaten a Power 5 team that finished with a winning record since Oct. 30, 2021 vs. Ole Miss. Since then, Auburn is 0-17 vs. Power 5 teams that finished with a winning record. Winning more games obviously has to happen, but winning big games has to happen, too. Generally, those two things will run parallel to each other.
Not too long ago, On3 partner FanDuel updated its 2024 regular-season win totals.
What do they think of Auburn? FanDuel projects Auburn’s over/under season win total at 7.5 wins.
The SEC has two of the highest over/unders this fall, with both Georgia and Texas sitting at 10.5. The league, which now features 16 teams, has another eight teams with totals set between 7.5-9.5, so a competitive conference projects to be even more difficult tin 2024.
Is the 7.5 number accurate? It seems like a fair total.
HERE ARE THE REST OF THE SEC SEASON OVER/UNDER WIN TOTALS.
Projected wins
Auburn will be favored at home against Alabama A&M, Cal, New Mexico, Arkansas, Vanderbilt and UL-Monroe. That Cal game could be sneaky tough. The Golden Bears have a transfer portal class ranked No. 16, bringing in 27 new players. Auburn’s transfer portal ranking is No. 11, by comparison. Cal also brings back running back Jadyn Ott, who rushed for 1,305 yards and 12 touchdowns last season.
Auburn handled both Arkansas and Vanderbilt on the road last season, so playing at home should produce wins again. The Vanderbilt game has additional intrigue because Clark Lea recently hired former New Mexico State (yes, the program that dominated Freeze the last two seasons at Liberty and Auburn) coach Jerry Kill as a chief consultant on staff, and the Commodores hired former New Mexico State offensive coordinator Tim Beck as their new OC. On top of that, former NMSU quarterback Diego Pavia transferred to Vanderbilt. But, if the Tigers hold serve, that would be six wins.
Toss-up games
Oklahoma at home, Missouri and Kentucky on the road, then Texas A&M at home seem like the four swing games right now. Auburn will be an underdog in all four games most likely, but not a big underdog. Early betting lines had Auburn as a 3-point underdog to Oklahoma, a 10-point underdog at Missouri and a 3.5-point underdog to Texas A&M. The Kentucky game doesn’t have an early line yet. Can Auburn defend the home field and beat the Sooners and the Aggies? If they do, that’s eight wins. If they split those games, they are sitting at seven wins, and upsetting Missouri or Kentucky on the road will be pivotal to exceeding expectations.
Tall tasks
Then there are road games at Georgia in early October and Alabama at season’s end. For now, those games on the road are simply tough asks for an Auburn program still trying to collect the talent to compete with two of the most talent-filled programs in college football. Auburn showed they could compete at home, nearly beating both the Bulldogs and the Tide last season. Competing into the fourth quarter on the road is different.
Of the last eight meetings at Georgia, the Tigers have been within one score in the fourth quarter only twice. Auburn hasn’t won in Athens since 2005. Of the last seven meetings at Alabama, the Tigers have been within one score in the fourth quarter only once. Auburn hasn’t won in Tuscaloosa since the “Camback” in 2010.
Will Auburn top 7.5 wins? Let’s hear your thoughts on The Corner.
The post Will Auburn football go over or under projected 7.5 wins? appeared first on On3.
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