Prediction Market Frenzy: Musk-Trump War Fuels Bizarre Political Wagers
Jamie Redman
News
Prediction Market Frenzy: Musk-Trump War Fuels Bizarre Political Wagers
Ever since tensions flared between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, markets have seesawed and social media has lit up with fiery takes on the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill.” The clash between the sitting U.S. president and the world’s wealthiest individual has also sent prediction markets into a frenzy. One wager, with $134,277 in action, pegs a 30% chance the two bury the hatchet before July.
Wagers Fly Over Musk-Trump Meltdown — 30% Bet on Reconciliation by July
This week, the world’s wealthiest man, Elon Musk—the force behind Tesla, SpaceX, and the owner of X (formerly Twitter)—locked horns with the 47th U.S. President, Donald Trump. What triggered the clash? Musk has been loudly condemning the “Big, Beautiful Bill” (BBB), labeling it a “disgusting abomination” in a flurry of posts on his X platform.
Musk took aim at the bill, blasting it as a “massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill” and slamming lawmakers who backed it. He warned it would balloon the federal deficit and national debt. Markets wobbled after his comments for reasons no one can quite explain, and bitcoin (BTC) briefly dipped to just over the $100,000 range before bouncing back to the $106,000 zone by June 8.
Prediction Market Frenzy: Musk-Trump War Fuels Bizarre Political Wagers
Trump fired back, claiming he would’ve won the election without Musk’s help and accusing him of being bitter over tweaks to the electric vehicle (EV) legislation. He even floated the idea of axing the billions in federal subsidies Musk’s businesses receive. Naturally, the feud sent prediction markets like Polymarket into overdrive.
Prediction Market Frenzy: Musk-Trump War Fuels Bizarre Political Wagers
One Polymarket bet with $81,002 in play gives Musk a 9% shot at announcing a U.S. presidential run in 2025. Another wager, with $596,843 in volume, assigns a 17% probability he’ll launch a new political party by Dec. 31, 2025, and a 7% chance he’ll do so by the end of this month. The odds of a Musk-Trump truce by July sit at 30%, while Trump apologizing to Musk by Monday is stuck below zero at -1%.
Meanwhile, Kalshi, a competing prediction platform, is also riding the drama with its own batch of bets. Kalshi traders say there’s a 40% chance Trump will yank Musk’s security clearance. There’s also a 12% chance Musk ends up back in Trump’s inner circle and a 24% chance Musk actually goes through with forming the political party he’s been talking about during this fiery back-and-forth with the president.
Prediction Market Frenzy: Musk-Trump War Fuels Bizarre Political Wagers
The Musk-Trump spat has turned into a full-blown spectacle, captivating attention like a reality show with billion-dollar stakes. While markets twitch and prediction sites buzz, millions are glued to this theater of ego and insults. It’s politics meets parody, and somehow, people can’t look away. In a world overflowing with real problems, sideshows still steal the spotlight.
Welcome to Billionaire Club Co LLC, your gateway to a brand-new social media experience! Sign up today and dive into over 10,000 fresh daily articles and videos curated just for your enjoyment. Enjoy the ad free experience, unlimited content interactions, and get that coveted blue check verification—all for just $1 a month!
Account Frozen
Your account is frozen. You can still view content but cannot interact with it.
Please go to your settings to update your account status.
Open Profile Settings