Carla Esparza vs. Tecia Pennington prediction, odds, pick for UFC 307
UFC 307: Alex Perera vs. Khalil Rountree continues on the prelims with a matchup in the strawweight division between Carla Esparza and Tecia Pennington. Esparza is coming off her title loss in her last fight with this being her first fight in 23 months meanwhile, Pennington is coming off back-to-back split decision losses in her last two fights. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Esparza-Pennington prediction and pick.
Carla Esparza (19-7) is returning to the Octagon for the first time after losing her strawweight title to Weili Zhang. She has won 6 out of her last 7 fights but is coming off a 23-month layoff as she looks to get herself back on track. The new mother wants to end her MMA career on a high note when she takes on Tecia Pennington in her retirement fight this weekend at UFC 307.
Tecia Pennington (13-7) is now coming back-to-back split decision losses that could’ve gone either way. She came back after becoming a new mother for the first time and fought a very close fight that ended in defeat to Tabatha Ricci. Now, Pennington will be looking to finally get back into the win column and send off Carla Esparza with a loss when they get locked inside the Octagon this weekend in Salt Lake City.
Here are the UFC 307 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 307 Odds: Carla Esparza-Tecia Pennington Odds
Carla Esparza: +145
Tecia Pennington: -175
Over 2.5 rounds: -660
Under 2.5 rounds: +420
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Why Carla Esparza Will Win
Carla Esparza has a strong chance of defeating Tecia Pennington at UFC 307 in Salt Lake City, despite this being her return fight after giving birth.
Esparza’s world-class wrestling skills will likely be the key factor in this matchup. Her ability to control opponents on the ground and neutralize their offense has been a cornerstone of her success throughout her career. As a two-time UFC strawweight champion, Esparza brings a wealth of high-level experience to this fight. This championship pedigree could prove crucial in a close contest against Pennington.
Returning to competition after becoming a mother, Esparza will be highly motivated to prove she’s still a top contender in the division. This drive could translate into an inspired performance. Pennington’s recent split decision loss to Tabatha Ricci suggests vulnerability to strong grapplers1. Esparza’s wrestling-heavy approach could exploit this weakness effectively.
Expect Esparza to implement a pressure-heavy game plan, using her wrestling to control the fight’s location and pace. By neutralizing Pennington’s striking and wearing her down over three rounds, Esparza can secure a decision victory or potentially find a late submission as she looks to get back into the win column one last time before calling it a career.
Why Tecia Pennington Will Win
Tecia Pennington has a strong chance of defeating Carla Esparza at UFC 307 in Salt Lake City, despite her recent setbacks.
Pennington’s striking skills are significantly more refined than Esparza’s. Her background in taekwondo and karate has given her excellent distance management, which will be crucial in keeping Esparza at bay and preventing takedowns. While Esparza’s wrestling is her primary weapon, Pennington has shown improved takedown defense in recent fights. Her 65% career takedown defense, coupled with her good sense of distance, will make it challenging for Esparza to implement her grappling-heavy game plan.
Pennington is known for her cardio and ability to scramble out of bad positions. This will be crucial against Esparza’s wrestling, as Pennington can potentially neutralize top control and force the fight back to the feet. Esparza is returning after giving birth, which could impact her performance. Ring rust and potential physical changes may hinder her ability to execute her usual wrestling-heavy strategy effectively.
Pennington has been more active and competitive against top contenders despite recent close decision losses. This experience, combined with her motivation to avenge her previous loss to Esparza, could be the driving force behind a strong performance in her attempt to right the ship and get back on track this weekend at UFC 307.
Final Carla Esparza-Tecia Pennington Prediction & Pick
These two mainstays in the strawweight division will battle it out as they look to get back into the win column this weekend. This will be Carla Esparza’s last hoorah and she will be looking to take it to Tecia Pennington in her retirement fight meanwhile, Pennington will be looking to get her loss back from her time on The Ultimate Fighter against Esparza this weekend.
Ultimately, Esparza looked like a former shell of herself over the last few years and now coming off the long layoff being a new mother in her retirement fight she has some uphill sledding against Pennington who despite being a new mother herself still has a lot left in the tank as she should be able to go out there sticking and moving to avoid the takedowns and soundly outstrike Esparza to a clear cut decision victory.
Final Carla Esparza-Tecia Pennington Prediction & Pick: Tecia Pennington (-175), Over 2.5 Rounds (-660)
The post Carla Esparza vs. Tecia Pennington prediction, odds, pick for UFC 307 appeared first on ClutchPoints.
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