November 28, 2023

MLB HR props for Wednesday 9/20: Back Bad Vlad, and you won’t be sad


Ronald Acuna Jr. needed only one pitch to cash our +450 ticket on him Tuesday night, and he cracked another one later in the game for some icing on the cake. Let’s stay hot with my three favorite home run prop bets for Wednesday’s MLB slate. 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+550 DraftKings)

Wednesday night’s matchup between the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays looks to be one of the only games with friendly weather for home runs. The wind will be blowing out to the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium, creating a projected 11 percent boost to homers (Ballpark Pal). Let’s roll with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who’s hit three home runs in his last 20 at-bats and has five opposite-field homers this season.

Paul Goldschmidt (+700 DK)

This price should never be +700 on a hitter as good as Paul Goldschmidt. Goldy has cracked three home runs in his last 45 at-bats, and he’s staring down a solid matchup on Wednesday night. In 28 career ABs against Milwaukee Brewers starter Adrian Houser, Goldschmidt is batting .286 and slugging .607 with three homers. We’ll gladly take a shot on the massive price here.

Freddie Freeman (+600 FanDuel)

Detroit Tigers rookie Reese Olson has given up a home run in each of his last two starts, and he’s in trouble Wednesday night against a dangerous Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. Freddie Freeman is batting .332 and slugging .540 with 14 home runs against right-handed pitching this season. I expected his price to be closer to +400, so we’ll take the extra juice and ride Freeman at +600.

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