January 25, 2023

Market Update – January 25 – Asian markets return to hot AUD & NZD Inflation

Many Asian markets back  (China & Taiwan remain closed all week) and higher today, NYSE suffered tech meltdown (250+ stocks paused trading on Open) US Stocks mixed following a raft of uninspiring Earnings. #MSFT had its weakest quarterly sales growth in 6-yrs but EPS beat. -0.22% on the day & -1.02% after hours. PMI data from EZ & US weak, but better than expected, UK data weak & missed. USDIndex recovered 102.00, EUR close to 9-mth highs. Hot CPI (8.4% & 32-yr high vs 7.6%) in AUD on bid & it lifts the outlook for hikes from RBA 7/2. AUD over 0.7100 close to 6-mth highs, NZD CPI also hotter than expected. Gold $1930, USOIL holds $80.00, BTC $22.7k.

  • The USD Index rallied to 102.20, on Tuesday, before PMI & Earnings weighed and it trades at 101.60 today. 
  • EUR – holds over 1.0900 now, having tested below 1.0845 yesterday, following a new  9-mth high at 1.0925 on Monday. 
  • JPY – Hit resistance at 131.00 and support at 130.00 yesterday, back to 130.40 now.
  • GBP – Sterling hit 1.2260 and 5-day lows following the weak PMI data, a revision of ONS data that showed UK to be the 2nd slowest growing of the G7 nations and record Government borrowing in December. (
  • Stocks – The US markets traded very mixed yesterday amid concerns over Earnings  (-0.27% to +0.96%). US500 -0.07%, (-2.86) 4016 band holds the key 4000 level US500 FUTS trade at 4019. #MSFT had its weakest Q4 sales growth in 6-yrs but EPS beat, stock fell -0.22% on the day & -1.02% after hours. 

  • USOil – topped at $82.58 on Monday and declined to test before inventories data showed a build of 8.4 million barrels (vs. an expected drawdown of 2.4 million barrels) and prices rallied to $81.50 and holds at $81.00 now. 
  • Gold – has hit 9-mth highs today at $1935 again today and trades at $1930 now. The spectre of CB’s reluctant to talk pivot and season factors help the key commodity. 
  • BTC – Continues to hold the $20k handle this week and is back to test $21k today.

Today German Ifo, BOC Policy Announcement Earnings from ASML, AT&T, Tesla, Boeing, IBM & Abbott.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDNZD (+1.21%). Rallied from 1.0800 yesterday to trade at 1.0960 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising. RSI 85.12, OB & stalling, H1 ATR 0.00205, Daily ATR 0.0070.

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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