October 3, 2023

Fed’s Beige Book: Many districts said supply chain disruptions constraining growth

Fed's beige book: There have been wide-ranging input costs increases from strong demand

  • Economic activity across US expanded at a modest pace in the final weeks of 2021
  • Some districts reported that transportation bottlenecks had stabilized in the past few weeks but procurement costs remain elevated
  • Many contacts noted that wage gains at the low end were particularly strong
  • Many contacts attributed the high cost of inputs to ongoing supply chain disruptions
  • Some districts noted that price increases had decelerated a bit from the recent robust pace
  • Optimism remained generally high
  • Several districts cited businesses trimming expectations for growth in the next several months
  • Most districts noted a sudden pullback in leisure travel, hotels and restaurants as new cases rose
  • Compensation growth remained well-above historical averages across industries, demographics and geographies
  • Full report

As usual, there’s something for everyone in the Beige Book. The wage growth commentary is certainly inflationary but Team Transitory might point to improvements in bottlenecks as a sign of things to come.

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