January 31, 2023

Fades bounce off 200-HMA amid bearish RSI divergence

  • EUR/USD renews intrday high but the bulls struggle to keep the reins during five-day uptrend.
  • Successful trading above 200-HMA, immediate resistance break favor buyers.
  • RSI (14) fails to accompany higher lows on prices, suggesting the lack of strength in upside momentum.

EUR/USD picks up bids to refresh intraday top near 1.0910 during early Wednesday,  staying firmer for the fifth consecutive day. Even so, the buyers struggle to keep the driver’s seat as of late. In doing so, the Euro fades the bounce off the 200-Hour Moving Average (HMA), as well as struggling to rise despite breaking a downward-sloping trend line from Monday.

It’s worth noting that the sluggish MACD signals join the RSI’s (14) inability to back the EUR/USD run-up, marked by higher lows on prices and lower lows on the RSI, to lure the pair sellers.

However, a clear downside break of the previous resistance line, around 1.0870 by the press time, appears necessary for the pair sellers to take entries.

Even so, the 200-HMA level surrounding 1.0840 could act as the last defense of the EUR/USD bulls, a break of which should open the door for the pair’s slump towards the early month peak surrounding 1.0760.

On the contrary, the monthly high near 1.0930 will precede a late April 2022 peak of 1.0935 to attract EUR/USD buyers.

Following that, the run-up will find a hard time as the 1.1000 round figure and March 2022 top close to 1.1185 could challenge the north run.

EUR/USD: Hourly chart

Trend: Pullback expected


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