May 30, 2023

EURUSD down on the day after run to and through 38.2% on Friday fails on the first test


EURUSD on the 4-hour chart

The EURUSD squeezed higher on Friday and in the process moved above a swing area between 1.1354 and 1.1359 an also moved through the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the October 2021 high at 1.13787. The high price reached 1.13857. However, by the close, the price has moved back below the retracement level.

Today that rejection of the 38.2% retracement (at least on the first look), has led to further downside pressure. The low price reached 1.13344. The current price is trading at 1.13497 the corrective high price in the European session moved up to 1.1365. That was short of the last Wednesday high near 1.13682.

The move lower has cracked back below the aforementioned 1.1354-1.1359 area. Admittedly, the price has traded above and below that level over the last few hours. However watch that area for sellers (also up to 1.1368 high from last Wednesday). Stay below is more bearish.

Ultimately, it would take a move back above the 38.2% retracement 1.13787 to give the buyers more confidence. Absent that and the run higher on Friday (year end flows?) is still not all that convincing.

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