March 23, 2023

Downside surprise on Mexican GDP to put pressure on the Peso – Commerzbank

At the start of the week USD/MXN traded further sideways below the 19 mark.  Mexican GDP data for Q4 2022 will be published today. A downside surprise could put pressure on the Peso, economists at Commerzbank report.

Economic momentum likely to have weakened

“Today, the Mexican office of statistics (INEGI) will publish a first estimate of growth in Q4 2022 – which will provide a backward glance. Bloomberg consensus expects that economic momentum will have weakened and expects seasonally adjusted QoQ growth of 0.3%, following 0.9% the previous quarter. Year-on-year consensus expects growth of 3.4% (in Q3 the rate stood at 4.3%). As a result, growth would be below Banxico’s projections.”

“If the data were to surprise on the downside and come in well below Banxico’s projections that is likely to put pressure on the Peso, above all in a more risk-averse market environment.”


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