June 3, 2023

AUDUSD tests the 100 bar MA on 4-hour chart. Can support hold?


AUDUSD on the 4-hour chart is testing the 100/200 bar MAs

The AUDUSD waffled higher on Friday, and in the process moved up to retest its 50% midpoint of the move down from the October high (see four hour chart above) at 0.72735. The high price reached 0.72769. The falling 100 day moving average currently at 0.72846 was also in play and helped to slow the ascent.

Today, the high reached 0.72764 just below the high from Friday. The inability to push higher gave sellers a reason to enter and reverse the pair back to the downside.

The run lower has now seen the price move down and move to, and through, the 100 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart at 0.71887. The 200 bar moving averages is a little lower at 0.71742. The area between 0.7172 and 0.7186 is also a swing area (see red numbered circles).

So support is being tested on the run to the downside. Move below the 0.7172-74 area and it would open the door for further downside momentum.

What would give dip buyers against the moving averages some comfort?

Watch the broken 38.2% retracement of the move down from the October high at 0.7207. Also near that level are the lows from last week at 0.72053 and 0.72123. If the price is able to get above that area, the dip buyers would have some added confidence that the move lower to moving average support is working at least in the short term.

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