The Eagles come into Week 11 with the best record in the NFL at 8-1. Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown have been spectacular through the first half of the season.
Here the Chiefs’ defense has improved since last season, the Eagles’ defense has struggled.
Philadelphia’s allowing 257 passing yards per game, which ranks 28th in the league. What the Eagles are lacking in the secondary, they make up for in the trenches as they own the NFL’s best defense against the run, allowing just 66.3 rushing yards per game.
We continue to gather more data on each team to help make the best NFL picks. The primetime showdown has a total of 45½ points, according to the latest NFL Vegas odds. The total has continued to come down throughout the week.
The NFL point spread has the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs as 2½-point favorites. Philadelphia was pegged as 1½-point favorites in last season’s Super Bowl point spread. Andy Reid is notoriously strong off the bye with a ridiculous 31-6 straight-up record, including the playoffs.
There’s a lot on the line here for the playoffs, as both teams are currently at the top of their respective conferences.
Only the number one seed in each conference gets a bye in the first round of the playoffs, so it’s pertinent to keep winning if they want to earn a week off in the postseason.
Both teams have been strong in tight games so far this season; maybe one of the Kelce brothers will make a game-changing play. Travis Kelce has been all over the media with his recent relationship with Taylor Swift, and his brother Jason Kelce is the man upfront every time the Eagles run their patented “tush push” or “brotherly shove” play.
These teams are considerably slow on the offensive end, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t efficient. The Chiefs have the lowest rate of 3-and-out, and they have played at the sixth-slowest pace over the last month. Philadelphia isn’t much quicker, playing at the seventh slowest rate.
If you are joining the touchdown train for the first time, you’ll need to know that I will always play this game smart. I never make picks blindly and throw noodles at the wall to see if they stick just because a player’s odds are long to score.
The research I’ve done will always back up the reasoning behind my touchdown picks. Now that the stage is set let’s get to our MNF anytime touchdown scorer predictions for the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Best of luck if you tail!
Chiefs vs Eagles Best Anytime TD Scorer Bets
One of the first things to consider about touchdown betting is the game script. If you handicap a team to blow the other side out, you can expect running backs to get plenty of work for the winning side and receivers for the losing side as they throw more to try to catch up. I’m not convinced on a side here, but I do lean toward the Eagles. For that reason, I expect Chiefs receivers to be busy.
The Eagles defense has allowed two rushing touchdowns. The Chiefs’ running game has created the second-fewest yards before contact at 0.78. The Chiefs only path to defeating the Eagles this time around appears to be through the passing game. Due to the Eagles stout run defense, they have been a pass funnel for opponents and are facing a league-high 27.1 targets per game to wide receivers.
The rookie wide receiver for the Chiefs has run primarily from the slot. Before the bye, he saw a season-high 68% snap rate, and he is tied with Kelce for the most red zone targets on the Chiefs.
Mahomes will utilize the quick passing game all night to counter the Eagles powerful pass rush, and what better way to do it than to find your slot man? I expect the rookie Rice to be called upon often!
For the Super Bowl, I rolled with A.J. Brown as my “banker,” and we cashed in big. This time around, Brown has an incredibly tough matchup with Chiefs top corner, L’Jarius Sneed.
The Chiefs run two highs at the highest rate in the NFL, which is their way of avoiding the deep ball against them. Brown had been on a historic run earlier this season, but with Sneed expected to shadow, I’m opting for DeVonta.
The odds on Smith are a bit disrespectful, given his incredible talent. The Eagles will be without tight end Dallas Goedert, and that means Smith will see a bigger bump in looks. He has had a 19% target share, but in five games without Goedert last year, Smith’s target share bumped up to 27%. I’m firing up Smith with confidence!
Questions of the Day
Which player on the Chiefs team has the best value to score an anytime touchdown against the Eagles?
The player on the Chiefs with the best value to score an anytime touchdown against the Eagles is Rashee Rice.
Which player in the league has the best value to score a rushing touchdown?
The player in Monday Night Football with the best value to score a rushing touchdown is Jalen Hurts.