March 23, 2023

#11 Arizona State vs. #11 Nevada

The NCAA Tournament action continues Wednesday from Dayton with two at-larges facing off for the final spot in the Round of 64, as the Arizona State Sun Devils take on the Nevada Wolf Pack following Texas Southern versus Fairleigh Dickinson in a battle of 16-seeds in the First Four.

We look at the game and how you can find value in the matchups to prepare you for Wednesday’s action.

#11 Arizona State vs. #11 Nevada Game Information

  • Location: University of Dayton Arena – Dayton, OH
  • Time: 9:10 p.m. ET | TV: tru TV

#11 Arizona State vs. #11 Nevada Odds on FanDuel

  • Spread: Arizona State -2.5 (-105) | Nevada +2.5 (-115)
  • Moneyline: Arizona State -137 | Nevada +114
  • Total: OVER 133.5 (-115) | UNDER 133.5 (-105)

This spread is puzzling. It feels like disrespect for the metrics, as most metric-based models, such as KenPom and Haslametrics, have this as a two-point win for Nevada.

The Wolfpack enter the tournament on a three-game losing skid, but overtime defeats to both UNLV and San Jose State aren’t as bad as they sound, with both ranking within the top 100 on KenPom.

Oregon State transfer Jarod Lucas has been a stud for Nevada this season and should be in for another big game here. Despite the recent defeats, Lucas has gone for 24, 23, and 28 points in his past three outings, and it’s difficult to see Arizona State end his hot streak.

The Sun Devils are a real struggle to watch on the offensive end. They rank outside the top 270 in basically every shooting statistic and don’t have a single player with at least 60 three-point attempts shooting above 33 percent from beyond the arc. If they get behind early, it’s a serious grind for them to get back into the game.

But they boast a hard-nosed defense that ranks top 30 in the nation, keeping them in most games. Despite this, it’s difficult to understand why Arizona State would be favored in this neutral-court matchup. Back the Wolfpack both on the spread and moneyline in this spot.

Thumbnail photo via Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports

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